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Lazuli  4d ago (text post)   280 thread views

Weekly NFL Thread: Week 4

Let's chat about the National Football League. This week's schedule (all times Eastern):

Sun 2024-09-29 1:00PM Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers
Sun 2024-09-29 1:00PM Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Sun 2024-09-29 1:00PM Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Sun 2024-09-29 1:00PM Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Sun 2024-09-29 1:00PM New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun 2024-09-29 1:00PM Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun 2024-09-29 1:00PM Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun 2024-09-29 1:00PM Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears
Sun 2024-09-29 4:05PM New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun 2024-09-29 4:05PM Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun 2024-09-29 4:25PM Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun 2024-09-29 4:25PM Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sun 2024-09-29 8:20PM Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
Mon 2024-09-30 7:30PM Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
Mon 2024-09-30 8:15PM Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
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That being said, firing a coach with a winning record who's taken you to the Super Bowl and made the playoffs every year a few games into the season because the team looks bad is a bush league move. It's like something Cleveland would do.

The problem for Nick is that he barely hung onto his job after the last seven games of 2023, which was clearly a highly talented team taking a nosedive in organization, motivation, and tactics. He avoided getting fired by blaming the OC and DC, who they've replaced with more proven alternatives. ((There's an interesting conspiracy theory that Howie might have gotten too clever trying to play the Rooney rule in his OC/DC hires in 2023)). So rather than looking at it as the team's 2024 record is a small sample size, you have to look at it as the team's record since 12/1/23. Had they lost in NO, and then probably lost in TB as well, they would have been 2-8 across ten games, a pretty large sample size.

If Hurts can't figure it out, there will be broader implications for the league going forward. The past few years have seen QBs getting huge contracts with a lot of guaranteed money on the theory that it's impossible to win without one and you have to strike when the iron is hot, whatever the cost. But two things have happened since 2020 that have challenged that idea. The first is the sheer number of albatross contracts — Cleveland, the Giants, Jacksonville, Denver, and now possibly Philly are all saddled with them. Arizona is still questionable, as is Dallas. Of the 5 undefeated teams, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota are all starting QBs who were considered washed, and Josh Allen is past the point where guaranteed money is an issue. That leaves Kansas City, winners of 3 of the last 4 championships, and Mahomes's contract is more complicated than the others. He's also Patrick Mahomes.

I don't think the QB market will reset to a lower level (as % of cap space accounting for terms) until we see some of those players get traded for reasonable value in consecutive off-seasons. If Hurts and Lawrence, for example, get traded for a package equivalent to a late first round pick and then play competently for their new teams, and the next year we see the same happen with Dak Prescott and Baker Mayfield making similar successful moves at reasonable transaction costs; then teams will start to get the message that worthwhile QBs will be available when needed, and teams won't feel the need to lock down any chance at a Franchise QB.

I don't think the post-Jets reclamation projects or the failures of albatross contracts will radically alter the calculus if there isn't an apparent supply of competent QBs. Retreads and day-2 picks are lottery tickets, it's not easy to identify which ones will succeed and when.

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