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I'd disagree with you about the policies. I think Republicans will do more for workers. And the climate change thing is a wash since the election won't change the amount of world CO2 emitted by more than 0.05%.
But it sounds like you think differently.
If you agree with Democrats about 75% of things, you're probably just a Democrat. That's okay. It's not a surprise that a person who shares 75% of their beliefs with Democrats would vote Kamala. I would if I were you.
I think Nate's beliefs are a little different though.
I think it's also determined by what you base your votes on.
My fellow lefties sometimes still think if they just got the right candidate in the rural parts of the country and really sell the non-college educated populace there on Medicare for all or whatever, they'd look past said candidate being pro-abortion and pro-LGBT or whatever, when that's just not happening, because those rural non-college educated folks legitimately care more about abortion, LGBT rights, immigration, et al than progressive economic policy, even if they'd say they're for union rights or single-payer health care in poll. Those people are conservatives, even if they have some left-leaning views, they just don't vote on those views.
By the same token, if you're a former Democrat PMC and all you deeply care about is transgenderism in schools, COVID rules, and various other Internet culture war issues on the conservative side, and you base you votes on that, and may be pro-choice or pro-union, but don't vote on that, you're just a conservative now. Or at the least, a partisan Republican.
I'm not saying that as an attack or a dunk, but rather I'm treating the college-educated anti-woke centrist with the same respect as a religious pro-life activist when it comes to their political views.
Coming from a conservative bubble- you're absolutely correct that democrat's views on abortion(and there are lots of people who have qualms with Texas abortion law but can't get past the DNC position that after-birth abortion like Tim Walz legalized is a woman's fundamental right) and LGBT stuff and guns and the like are big things to look past.
But, I think you're also ignoring something else- we have no reason to trust democrats when they say they'll enact universal single payer. No, they'll enact taxpayer subsidies for partial birth abortions and leave us to cover our own cancer treatments. Likewise we know full well that expanding unions won't be done in such a way as to actually help workers, it'll be done to expand the DNC political machine. We support raising teacher pay, we just know you won't actually do it- you'll hire drag queens for schools with the money instead. Etc, etc.
I am quite sure there's an equivalent effect where progressives support Trump's views on tariffs or whatever, but expect he'll try to make up for it by cutting top tax brackets. I don't know, I'm not a liberal and I don't interact with them on a regular basis, that example was probably stupid. But I'm quite sure you can get the general gist.
I mean, except overwhelmingly in blue states, they have expanded access to health care in the ways they can. Every single 'blue state' immediately accepted the Medicaid expansion that was passed and in those states, there are far less hoops to jump through. Again, for unions, all of the states where it's easiest to form a union are in blue states - the more obvious example of this is where in Michigan, the Republican's passed right-to-work in 2010 and a the first Democratic trifecta since then reversed it.
I'd also point out that all the non-college educated non-woke blue collar workers could organize themselves under their own unions if they wanted too. There's no law against creating your own union, but to steal a phrase, there seems to be not enough Elite Human Capital to pull that off.
Also, all of the highest states in the country for teacher pay are blue states and the lowest are all red states.
Like, you can disagree with the extras, whether it's types of policy in schools or covering health care procedures you don't like, and that's a valid reason, but there on the basic issues, the Democrat's are better on these specific issues and again, if you care more about books you don't like being available to students or limiting abortion, that's all well and good, but then, you're a conservative.
Doesn’t teacher pay by purchasing power come out in the wash with no real trend state to state? The high pay for California teachers gets eaten by the high cost of living out there. If I had to guess which state had the highest purchasing power for the median teacher, I’d probably pick iowa- cheap with unions.
The idea is powered by the sense that democrats will betray normal voters to push a cultural agenda. And red states do have a history of trying to raise teacher pay and the money getting redirected by district admins to whatever stupid crap is fashionable, usually with a conference in the Bahamas involved. But yes, there’s plenty of projection involved in the idea- even if there’s frequently a grain of truth to it. A majority of republicans support universal background checks but candidates who campaign on universal background checks try to ban ‘assault weapons’ and restrict concealed carry.
I mean, we're probably not going to agree, but in recent years, when it comes to things that actually have salience to the population, as opposed to a salience among cultural conservatives, it's the Republican party that are "betraying normal voters" via excessive abortion bans, as seen by those bans losing in any referendum, even in deep red states like Kentucky.
But, there's also a categorical difference on what a "normal American" is, since your "normal" seems to be opposed to any liberal cultural values, when that's close to 40% of the country at a minimum, up to a strong majority on some issues.
Like, the median American is basically a woman who went to college for a year or two to get a associate's in medical transcription who works at a doctor's office, is pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, mildly pro-transgender rights but doesn't really care, thinks the border is an issue but also broadly pro-DREAM Act, wants more gun control but doesn't want all guns banned, thinks the cops have issues but we shouldn't defund them, and so forth, and all of that would likely be considered "pushing a cultural agenda on normal American's" to conservatives.
I’m pretty sure that the median voter is a white fifty something homeowner with no college degree who opposes partial birth abortions but supports first trimester ones, thinks there’s only two genders but that being dicks to people who are confused about it is dumb, supports gay marriage but no further, and wants universal background checks but has confused ideas on other gun policy ideas, thinks immigration is too high and identifies as anti-woke, but thinks there’s problem cops- and also that most of them are good ones who should get more societal respect.
There’s a progressive conceit that because young women who feel unhappy with their lot in life lean progressive, everyone else does too.
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Right, I got a little sidetracked there. I haven't paid much attention to Nate Silver to know his specific policies. I was more making the general point that there are valid reasons for a Democrat to express more frustration with Democrats, or Republicans with Republicans, than them simply having dismissed the idea of switching parties prematurely.
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