I'd wait until the end of the debate before looking at it either way, I doubt the markets are efficient enough to price the rethoric as fast as they do it for J. Powell.
It's a Keynesian beauty contest, all the bettors are trying to guess how a "normie" would react. Do you think the kinds of people who bet on polymarket are good at getting their fingers on the pulse of how voters react in real time?
I think the aggregate gives them an advantage and they'll probably guess right, but it takes time to collect all that information, I just don't think volatile events can get decent prices instantaneously.
The post debate polls will surely influence people quite a lot.
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Notes -
Polymarket not impressed with Trump's performance so far:
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election
I'd wait until the end of the debate before looking at it either way, I doubt the markets are efficient enough to price the rethoric as fast as they do it for J. Powell.
It's a Keynesian beauty contest, all the bettors are trying to guess how a "normie" would react. Do you think the kinds of people who bet on polymarket are good at getting their fingers on the pulse of how voters react in real time?
I think the aggregate gives them an advantage and they'll probably guess right, but it takes time to collect all that information, I just don't think volatile events can get decent prices instantaneously.
The post debate polls will surely influence people quite a lot.
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