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Notes -
If Belgium was a tripwire, it was a pretty substantial one. There was real doubt all the way through the process. Zero reason for England to back Serbia. Almost none to back Russia. More to defend France, but abstaining was seriously on the table. It was only preemptively occupying Belgium that said, hey, one of these pieces of paper has to mean something!
I've heard historians argue that the british government's legal counsel had advised that the 1839 treaty could be worked around. And in any event the UK went in before the invasion of Belgium - Grey's famous speech to parliament is all based upon assumptions and diplomatic insinuations, not any concrete actions by the Germans. Once the Brits were in, there was no incentive for the Germans not to go through Belgium.
The German war plans offered limited flexibility - not NO flexibility as the General Staff pretended - but once the decision was made to go in against France, Belgium was done for regardless. As units on the Belgian frontier were activated they were already moving across the border to secure the way for those coming behind them. The German deployment schedules which were so rigorously developed in the pre-war period required either a conquered Belgium or a pliant one. There were no alternatives.
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