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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 2, 2024

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Basically, there's nothing interesting to it. Alas, the mystery box strikes again: fantasy was better than reality.

Er. Obsession with "brown girls," "queer" and trans identity, fixation on sex and sexuality, a bit of "gay Jesus" blasphemy, like... if I were trying to write a fictional story about a mentally unwell person who had become the avatar of "orange Emily" Internet degeneracy, I could not model that character on Audrey's notebook because everyone would accuse me of unrealistically excessive exaggeration of negative stereotypes. You don't find anything interesting about that? It doesn't make you think, "huh, maybe this culture war stuff really can be damaging?"

Because, to be clear--maybe Audrey in a different culture becomes a terrorist, or a torturer, or whatever. The biological/sociological interactions that manifest in what we call "mental illness" are complex and poorly understood. But I think in many cases the radicalization process is deliberate. Muslim terrorists cultivate radical killers into ideological pawns. Race supremacists cultivate violent actors and train them to have maximum effect.

Whereas the "Woke" meme lacks central authority, tends to train institutional actors rather than radicals, and it's kind of an emergent ideology/neo-religion that mostly surfs on the backs of several not-entirely-comfortable-with-each-other-but-otherwise-basically-normal social and cultural institutions. Will there be more essentially "accidental radicals" in this vein? Or is Audrey just such an extreme outlier that there's simply nothing to learn here?

I'm open to the possibility that Audrey and most mass murderers are in fact such extreme outliers that they should not budge our priors much. But every time a scorned man goes on a misogynistic shooting spree, I'm assured that this is what we should expect from the Manosphere, and this is what the people asking to see the so-called "manifesto" were, I think, really asking after. It doesn't look much like a manifesto to me! But maybe this is just what a manifesto looks like, from the "orange Emily" ideology. How could we know? We don't seem to have a lot of cases to compare. Hopefully, we never will--but that brings us back to what makes this one more interesting than you seem to imply.

Beyond that, of course, the media's steadfast refusal to report on the thing lent it a great deal more mystique than might have otherwise been the case.

What the hell is an orange Emily?

I can think of a pretty wide spread of possible contents for the manifesto. Would it reveal the shooter was…

  • just really pathetic?
  • wronged by the school?
  • wronged by some vague sense of society?
  • lashing out, but citing an agenda?
  • reasonably planning to advance that agenda?
  • acting under orders?

Those are arranged in rough order of drama. People were suggesting pretty extreme ones, but we ended up stopping at the first or second. Which, sure, the Culture War does nasty things to people. That’s just milquetoast compared to some of the theories. A few choice selections from this forum:

It will be very interesting to see if trans activists feel any pressure to tone down the violent rhetoric now that it has resulted in a bunch of dead kids.

The perfectly tuned manifesto might trigger toxoplasma. I can see "Desparate cry for help from trans youth* brutally abused by religious fanatics" to split the public on whether we should blame the shooter or transphobia more.

I’ll bet my eye teeth it’s a Psyop. I’ve found treating all mass shootings as “Fake and Gay until proven otherwise” is an optimal heuristic. It’s probably why no one knows whether this person is MtFtM or FtMtFtM or something in between. The Newspeak is “TRANS”* this allows the usual suspects to ask why the focus isn’t on the issue of transgenderism/mental illness while the other usual suspects squawk about guns. The new talking point will be the tacit sympathy for a school shooter who was most certainly the victim of transphobia in that Jesus school…

Compared to those, what we got is pretty tame!

What the hell is an orange Emily?

It's a /r/PoliticalCompassMemes/ thing... orange Emily is the Woke wojak, basically. She started on 4chan as Art Hoe Wojak. She's usually lib-left but sometimes mid-left or even auth-left (especially when wearing a peaked cap). Characteristically the feminist inverse/counterpart of the purple coomer wojack, who is the "bad lib-right" character. There is pretty consistent "full compass unity" against orange and purple, they are characters who almost never get to be "based" or featured as the heroes in agenda posts (but see a counterexample here). Orange Emily hates Nazis more than anyone else, but is sure that everyone who doesn't identify as a black genderfluid differently-abled Wiccan is a Nazi.

So, you know. An unrealistically excessive exaggeration of negative stereotypes. Except, apparently, for this one time when...

Would it reveal the shooter was…

I think the main thing your list omitted was "targeting Christians for being Christians," which the notebook (now I want to know what law enforcement or media figure first called it a "manifesto," because certainly everyone has been calling it that for a long time) seems to not explicitly confirm, while also not actually weakening the case for that idea.

Following the link to this forum's discussion was an interesting exercise; it seems to me that many, maybe most of the posts in that thread have proven basically correct. Very few of the posts address the notebook at all.

Compared to those, what we got is pretty tame!

True, but you quoted a user with 21 posts, who hasn't been here in almost a year, who got moderated in that thread for (among other things) denying without evidence that anyone died at Sandy Hook, which like... yeah. Reality is always going to be more tame than whatever someone like that cooks up.

Ah, I do recognize that one.

I originally had "targeted Christians qua Christians" in between "wronged by (Christian) school" and "wronged by society," but I tried too hard to streamline the list.

And, yeah, I included psyop guy as an upper bound. I won't say he's representative.

Judging from the diary, it seems like ideology may have been part of the reason Audrey was so unhappy and mentally unwell. But it doesn’t look like she intended the attack to be propaganda of the deed for the cause, or to strike back at enemies of the revolution. To me it looks more like the typical mass-shooter motive for an aggressively postured suicide. Elliot Rodger seemed to have considered himself to be on a crusade of personal vengeance, but I don’t think he necessarily considered it a political act. Compare both of those to Ted Kaczynski, where although he was perhaps mentally ill, he had a pretty defined ideology he was acting under and specifically intended his attacks to advance that ideology.

This all seems correct to me, but what I'm wondering is about the nature of "radicalization" when the relevant ideology is ungrounded, emergent, deliberately obscurantist, etc. I think usually such ideologies just don't produce extremism, because it's hard to be a zealot for something so conceptually slippery. This particular case is exceptional in several respects, which might mean the best thing to do is chalk it up to noise in the system. But I don't feel sure of that. At minimum--I do not, at all, agree that these notebook pages contain, quote, "nothing interesting."