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Notes -
Regarding scandals, the first campaign had to contend about 50 years of scandals, the second with time in office (although it wasn’t hugely relevant), the third with a mere four years. Also, Trump’s old, something could come out but it seems unlikely he’s still sleeping with porn stars.
Regarding policy, I think Trump wants to win and I think he does care about polling. He’s also still close to a lot of coastal rich people (in private even if some won’t associate with him as openly) who aren’t social conservatives and who probably (correctly) flag abortion as something most people are moderately liberal about.
This election is personal. In 2016 I think there was a kind of civic impulse in Trump. Yes, it was bound up in ego and, sure, he wanted to be president and make everyone have to listen to him. But he was also angry about the country, about Obama and Hillary, about politics.
Today - despite the fact that his ‘punishment’ for losing will be much, much tougher than it would have been in 2016, his heart doesn’t seem in it as much. The anger has softened. He mostly just seems to want to prove his enemies and detractors wrong. I also don’t think he actually believes he might go to jail, which is interesting.
There’s a lot of things going on here, but Trump might just expect to plea out his charges if he loses.
The irony is that while Kamala is campaigning on being his figurative prosecutor just as he was being Hillary's, she'll have the same incentives to let it go as he did if she wins.
Some of the more Trump deranged parts of the American left will still want their pound of flesh though, and that includes some of those actual prosecutors.
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