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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 2, 2024

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There's no guarantee that a German-dominated Europe would have been hostile to Britain. German relations with Britain were actually significantly improving prior to the outbreak of war in 1914 - Germany had conclusively lost the battleship race and stopped even trying to keep up with the British by 1910. The Chancellor even offered to gift the entire German High Seas Fleet to the Brits in order to secure neutrality.

The Liberal government was fairly unified in favor of staying out if it could be reasonably done...except that particular Teutophobes (e.g. Eyre Crowe) and Francophiles (e.g. Edward Grey) at the Foreign Ministry had been running a private French policy with minimal supervision, and during the July Crisis advised the PM and cabinet that they had already committed the honor of Britain to keeping the Kriegsmarine out of the Channel without bothering to consult the Royal Navy (or really anyone else).

Except balance of power politics had been British strategy for centuries at this point; they’re not going to suddenly support a continental hegemon that isn’t them.

Except balance of power politics had been British strategy for centuries at this point

Everyone always says this, but I'm not so sure. The Brits had no problem with a post-Napoleonic Europe dominated by Russia and Austria in the Holy Alliance; France was prostrate and Prussia was small and reforming. Sure, Britain pushed back against Russia when it started pushing up against British interests in the middle east and India (e.g. the Crimean War), but other than that the Brits held themselves aloof.

Austria was not entirely considered a Great Power by the middle of the 19th century (France, 'prostrate' or not, was viewed as the 1000 pound gorilla of the Continent until the unification of Germany) and, as you note, Britain balanced against the Russians when it seemed to be necessary.

However, when the British failed balance sufficiently, they got the two World Wars and an Arms Race or two so, to the extent they didn't balance, they were being actively taught by events why it was important to do so.

One can argue that the UK got WWI because they were too obsessed with trying to balance (or at least because Grey and French were). And after the horror that was WWI, it's completely understandable why the Brits would have a reflexive allergy against an assertive and powerful Germany, specifically. After all, what was the point of the millions and millions dead and maimed, including the best and brightest of a whole generation, if it only bought thirty years before the Boche came back, and this time in an even less couth guise than the Kaiser? It's the ultimate sunk cost.

The failure to prevent a unified Germany is pretty much what I mean when I say Britain 'failed [to] balance sufficiently'.