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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   29521 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 26, 2024

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Young men, a Trump-leaning demographic, are not switching to Kamala Harris. The suggestion is preposterous. It can only be made in the fatalistic Motte fantasy world where people continue to not know anything real about Donald Trump.

How much impact he had on each one of those outcomes is limited, but people like winners.

Fight! Fight! Fight!

They can also abstain from voting or go third-party, which is positive for Kamala.

I don't detect the energy that Trump's campaign had in 2016 in 2024. He's a known quantity now and he didn't actually "drain the swamp", "lock her up", or do any of the things that young men actually wanted.

You seem to assume that the Motte is fatalistic because it lives in a fantasy world. In fact, the Motte is fatalistic because both sides of the political fence have failed to make a cogent argument for rationality and truth-seeking order. Both sides are retreating from this; some are even loudly claiming that this is the dead end the Enlightenment tradition has led us into. The entire COVID debacle had people here very loudly slashing their wrists over the mass denial, the reaction, the overreaction, the bad science, and the memory-holing. Even the most pure of quokkas would, having being equipped with basic powers of observation, have felt a collapse akin to finding out how stupid and apathetic people really are about being at war with racists who think COVID is a big deal anti-vaxxers who believe COVID isn't a big deal people who refuse to isolate people who refuse to wear chin diapers people who think it's bad to campaign publicly for BLM during social distancing people who don't social distance Eurasia Eastasia conspiracy theorists people who think COVID spending is a bad idea people who think COVID didn't disproportionately hurt black people [software update pending, please hold, fill in the blank as you wish depending on what the people in power want you to hate].

This place doesn't have many shared values anymore but one of the very few is a desire for truth seeking out of a belief it produces better outcomes and that houses built on sand cannot stand. Finding out that the truth is like poetry, and that most people fucking hate poetry, even if it can recognizably produce better outcomes, is like finding out the Earth is flat and that proving it isn't makes you into the lunatic they burn at the stake.

Call it learned helplessness it you want, I prefer the pithy "Oh shit, people really are that stupid and easily led" and "if they could mindfuck millions of people into doublethink this easily, what else are they mindfucking us into?" Older people remember the Iraq war, maybe next time the powers that be will pick a juicier target.

I don't detect the energy that Trump's campaign had in 2016 in 2024.

Trump is polling higher than he ever has before. A month ago he was shot in the head and dodged a bullet. Then he got on his feet and started a fight chant.

The people saying they don't feel 2016 energy are all people who, in 2016, were certain that he was going to lose and could never possibly win. This time 2016 the Republican party was abandoning him in droves, "grab them by the pussy" was coming out and convinced everyone that this campaign was finished, and Hillary was giving interviews about how far ahead she was. This feels some some new meme fatalist consensus: but the same doomsayers were doomsaying then too.

People aren't satisfied with Trump? After 4 years of Biden Trump looks better than ever before. People remember peace and a stronger economy and groceries that didn't triple in price. He didn't drain the swamp? Gee, yeah, I wonder what happened.

This is what I'm talking about: the fatalism here is people who don't like Trump and never liked Trump rationalizing increasingly desperate forms of depression. What on earth does this have to do with the Enlightenment? The average poster here is pretty smart, but I doubt 1 in 10 could give a coherent definition of that period of time without consulting Google. Desire for truth? Maybe in principle, but I see bullshit repeated here all the time.

I thought Trump was going to win in 2016. I actually won money off of people for betting on it.

I don't think he's going to win now. It's not guaranteed, but Kamala is less of a disaster candidate than Hillary Clinton for the majority of Americans who don't pay attention to politics.

https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1829250723659559419

Kamala: "The climate crisis is real that it is an urgent matter to which we should apply metrics that include holding ourselves to deadlines around time."

Kamala Harris is probably the stupidest major parth candidate of the last 30 years. Hillary, for all her flaws, was cunning and smart. Once people internalize that Kamala isn't smart -- she wants to tax unrealized gains, she wants to end gasoline cars, she can't fix the border -- people will not accept Kamala as "less of a disaster".

Trump is polling higher than he ever has before.

Eh? Kamala jumped ahead as soon as she was anointed and only dropped slightly.

In 2016, at this time, Trump was supposedly -10.

In 2020, at this time, Trump was supposedly -10.

Now, polls have Trump around -2 to +2. He looks great in swing states. The indictments consolidated support, the assassination attempt consolidated support, and RFK's endorsement represents a new base of support. Trump looks better than he's ever looked, his favorables are better than they've ever been, 4 years of Biden makes Trump's presidency look even better in hindsight -- and somehow, all I hear on the Motte is how Trump is definitely, for sure, this time, we mean it, decisively, finally, no joke, losing.

What is this place?

This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.

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Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


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