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Notes -
... Why do we expect significantly higher performance from federal than local sharpshooters? I would think that's a skill that caps fairly quickly.
Sharpshooting is a pretty serious skill, both in terms of developing and maintaining direct shooting ability, and also in terms of developing a broader set of situational awareness, learning to see things rather than patterns, and developing stamina.
More generally, counter-snipers are set up in what they've selected as an ideal position, generally shooting from prone position, and often are working with spotter assistance. The Butler SWAT individual had to sprint from a location with obscured view due to foliage, get a sight picture, and was almost certainly firing from a standing position (albeit possibly with support/cover).
It's 100 yards, which isn't some amazing world-defying feat, but it's one that I would normally expect a counter-sniper team to excel at in ways that most police officers (and most SWAT) don't really prioritize. ((Though obv this guy may well have been an outlier.))
It just seems that expecting talent to out within the context of one shot is poor evidence. I wouldn't expect it to stabilize until we've repeated the exercise at least five times, for the expected talent difference between class b and class a to be at all apparent.
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