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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   29554 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 26, 2024

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The current Official Story of the shooting is that:

  • A total of ten shots were fired.
  • "8 shots were fired by [the shooter] from his firing (and dying) position on the AGR rooftop."
  • "The 9th shot fired on J13 was from a Butler SWAT operator from the ground about 100 yards away from the AGR building... He stopped [the shooter] and importantly, I believe the shot damaged the buffer tube... This means that if his AR buffer tube was damaged, [the shooter]’ rifle wouldn’t fire after his 8th shot."
  • "The 10th (and, I believe, final) shot was fired from the southern counter-sniper team... entered somewhere around the left mouth area and exited the right ear area. Instant over. This entry-exit aligns with USSS southern counter-sniper team position."

That is, a rando on the ground managed faster and more accurate counter-sniper operations, possibly even disabling the shooter, than the actual federal counter-sniper team.

... Why do we expect significantly higher performance from federal than local sharpshooters? I would think that's a skill that caps fairly quickly.

Sharpshooting is a pretty serious skill, both in terms of developing and maintaining direct shooting ability, and also in terms of developing a broader set of situational awareness, learning to see things rather than patterns, and developing stamina.

More generally, counter-snipers are set up in what they've selected as an ideal position, generally shooting from prone position, and often are working with spotter assistance. The Butler SWAT individual had to sprint from a location with obscured view due to foliage, get a sight picture, and was almost certainly firing from a standing position (albeit possibly with support/cover).

It's 100 yards, which isn't some amazing world-defying feat, but it's one that I would normally expect a counter-sniper team to excel at in ways that most police officers (and most SWAT) don't really prioritize. ((Though obv this guy may well have been an outlier.))

It just seems that expecting talent to out within the context of one shot is poor evidence. I wouldn't expect it to stabilize until we've repeated the exercise at least five times, for the expected talent difference between class b and class a to be at all apparent.

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