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Granted, I don't understand economics very well, but I don't understand the argument that the dollar is the world's reserve currency because the US can militarily dominate huge regions of the world. I can potentially see some indirect and relatively weak mechanisms that would connect the two, but I don't see any clear direct mechanism by which the military power would have a dominant impact on the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Isn't the dollar the world's reserve currency because the US economy is huge, fairly dynamic, and - most importantly - stable?
If the US became isolationist but retained a very strong and stable economy, why would other countries switch to using some other currency other than the dollar as the reserve currency?
I'd also like to briefly address your point about Trump as a destabilizing factor. In my opinion, while he is destabilizing, the impact of this is effectively contained by our political system. The chances of him becoming a dictator, as you at least somewhat agree, is extremely small. Meanwhile, the Democrats are also a destabilizing factor. For example, I personally think that the combination of weak law enforcement in Democrat-run cities and frequent leftist street riots is significantly more destabilizing than everything that Trump has ever done put together, since it contributes to a sense of physical insecurity and a sense that one is living in anarchotyranny. The destabilizing effects on people are both directly physical - in the sense of street crime - and mental, in that living in such an atmosphere can make one rather grim, pessimistic about the country's future, and bitter at one's political opponents.
Trump might inspire a future Caesar, but the way I see it Democrats are already, right now, working on ripping apart our social order in a deleterious way. That's not what the vast majority of them think they are doing - they think that they are working to make the world a better place, but I believe that is what the actual consequences of some of their policies are.
The dollar is backed by the navy keeping shipping lanes open, as the pound was before it, and the Spanish dollar before that.
Of course, Spain and Britain are wealthy countries today. They happen to be much less so in world standings than they were at the height of their power(Britain in particular). But the average Brit didn’t start seeing real declines in standard of living until very recently.
The real question is ‘who becomes hegemon if the US collapses?’ Don’t make me laugh by saying China.
Leaving aside the very historically likely "something completely out of left field due to totally unforseen factors", the question is really just to ask ourselves who today can muster the most competent complex organization and is willing to swing power to get their way.
I think there's a real possibility for a corporation to be a contender this time. The power of nation states has been waning for quite a bit and they're all so exhausted that the idea the next Great Man and his retinue would be in the public sector almost seems silly.
On one hand, military power is a very jealously guarded privilege. On the other hand, large parts of the tech industry are aligning themselves to weapons manufacturing, automation and infrastructure in a way that could make something like this happen. Maybe the non-extractive parts of the MIC decide they're tired of subsidizing morons, cut out the middle man and rule the world directly.
My base case is that there won't be a great hegemon for a while though, that we're due for a long period of decentralization and diminishing power until someone kicks off the imperialism again from a direction that may be impossible to even imagine right now.
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Economics and military strength are not directly linked per say, but there is a lot of overlap. There are certainly incentives for allied countries to hold large amounts of US assents, as well as to allow US companies access to their markets. We take for granted the fact that McDonald's is even allowed to exist in a lot of other countries. Without the implicit threat of force, we could see our access to foreign markets (both as a producer and as a consumer) diminish in the long term. And this would certainly make us poorer overall.
As to your other point, I agree that a lot of democratic policies are having an adverse effect on living conditions. If there were simply a vote on whether or not to continue with those policies, I would certainly vote no. But as it is, there are more factors to consider.
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