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Culture War Roundup for the week of August 19, 2024

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I think that the face of warfare has changed a lot since the framing of the US constitution. In the days of the war of independence, men using small arms, i.e. guns similar to the ones privately owned for hunting or self-defense, made up the bulk of land military capability.

Yes, but those men had to be organized and equipped, and the expensive stuff - heavy cavalry and artillery - were what won most wars.

While today military small arms still play an important role in combat, especially in in urban areas, they no longer rule supreme. Artillery, armored vehicles, air and drone strikes are force multipliers for ground operations.

Each side had well over 200 cannon at the 1759 battle of Kunersdorf, or approximately one cannon for each 250 combatants.

As best as I can tell, as of January 2023 Ukraine had approximately 1,600 artillery pieces and roughly 700,000 men under arms, or approximately one cannon for each ~440 combatants. Even if that 700,000 number sweeps in a lot of non-combat personnel, the ratio of guns to combatants in major open warfare hasn't changed all that much.

And although there really is no civilian counter to organized air power, per press accounts (fwiw) imaginative civilians are dunking on established defence establishments these days in drone tech, development, and deployment.

A war where one side has such assets (such as a tyrannic federal government) and the other side (such as freedom-loving Americans) does not have them will likely be very asymmetrical. The US military has proven capable of mostly suppressing insurgents in the Middle East even if they are armed with RPGs, which are crucial to counter armored vehicles.

The U.S. war of independence was also a massively-asymmetrical conflict against a highly-capable enemy with experience in such conflicts - the rebels never developed a military establishment that was as disciplined, organized, equipped, and motivated as the Brits, who had significant experience putting down colonial risings in North America, Ireland, and India. Things don't change as much as you think.

Compared to patriotic Americans the insurgents in the Middle East had a few key advantages:

  • Birth rates above replenishment, where life is cheap

Both Russia and Ukraine have had absolutely atrocious birth rates for ages, and they're going at each other hammer and tongs just fine.

  • A religious ideology which emphasizes the importance of violent self-sacrifice

Not present in Ukraine either, or indeed in colonial America. People motivated themselves with secular causes just fine.

Both Russia and Ukraine have had absolutely atrocious birth rates for ages, and they're going at each other hammer and tongs just fine.

Perhaps closer to home, the Mexican drug war has heated up as the fertility transition took effect there- and the economy got better.