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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   32892 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 5, 2024

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I suspect that’s going to bite Poland in the ass eventually, but for different reasons.

Do you have specific predictions in which way it will go wrong?

  1. It creates a large revanchist pressure group that will be spoiling to drag Poland into a war with Russia.
  2. Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials are already laying the groundwork for a Dolchstoßlegende, blaming NATO for dragging them into the war and then leaving them high and dry without sufficient support to win. Which is true, but in any case I suspect it will lead to a spree of revenge terrorism and assassinations by Banderite groups throughout Europe in the late 2020s and early 2030s. Probably using leftover NATO weaponry.

It creates a large revanchist pressure group that will be spoiling to drag Poland into a war with Russia.

they are selected for "we run away from war", and for "fuck Russia" part there will be no to little disagreement

no idea why they would activate after Ukraine loses (and I guess that if they want they could go to East as partisans)

Which is true

nope, it is not

It is Russia who invaded because they could not accept not being a superpower anymore

alternative (helping Russia to be superpower or pretending it is) would be worse

Banderite groups throughout Europe in the late 2020s and early 2030s

what would be even motive, reasoning and strategy here?

Probably using leftover NATO weaponry.

Which one? Because it ranges from "utterly impractical in covert terrorism" and "they had it already" with side of "trying to do MH17 will end with partitioning your country if you are Ukraine, not Russia".

nope it is not

Well, the United States overthrew their government to replace it with one less neutral to Russia, then they pressured them to be more and more militant towards Russia while arming them to the teeth, then after the invasion Boris Johnson scotched the potential peace deal, then the lead Ukrainian negotiator got mysteriously shot in the head, then NATO law makers procrastinated for 9 months before sending any of significant armaments they promised, so I would say it’s true.

What would even be the motivation, reasoning, and strategy here?

Anger when they realize they got their country destroyed based on a bunch of fake promises from people who didn’t really care about them at all.

As for your first point, the normal people will all have to stay behind and suffer but the ideological hardliners like what’s left of Azov Battalion will probably make it out. Those types usually do.

Anger when they realize they got their country destroyed based on a bunch of fake promises from people who didn’t really care about them at all.

The use of passive voice in "they got their country destroyed" is truly vicious here. You think those people will mysteriously forget who was doing the bombing and invading of their country?

Some people have a really strange sense of geopolitical justice. When USA feeds color revolutions to expand its sphere of influence it's a bad misguided greedy choice of the corrupt hegemon, when Russia rolls the tanks and artillery into their neighbours to expand its sphere of influence it's a purely natural consequence, a forced reaction, just water flowing downhill and not agency.

I don’t think the Ukrainians are responsible for their current predicament. Especially not the people. I don’t even think the government is: If Zelenskyy started negotiating a treaty he would end up couped out of office or dead within a week. If the Soviet Union had staged a communist revolution in Mexico in 1984 and stated their firm intention to bring Mexico into the Warsaw Pact and stage IRBMs in Tijuana and El Paso, I would lay the blame for Reagan’s subsequent invasion and the bloodshed that followed squarely at the feet of the USSR.

United States overthrew their government

not USA

then they pressured them to be more and more militant towards Russia

I would say that Russia invading was stronger factor here

while arming them to the teeth

I wish, sadly it was not really done

after the invasion Boris Johnson scotched the potential peace deal

Somehow I doubt that Ukrainians were enthusiastic about Budapest Memorandum 2.0 no matter what Boris did.

And Russian proposals were bonkers and were effectively "can you dismantle your army so it will be easier to invade"?

then NATO law makers procrastinated for 9 months before sending any of significant armaments they promised

By April 2022 Poland send more than 200 tanks (240 from what I remember). And Mig-29 fighters (after doing it officially collapsed they were transferred as "spare parts", confidentially in large enough numbers to assemble some new planes). I could dig more for sources but 240 tanks counts as counterexample, you are not as well informed as you think on this topic.

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