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Notes -
If you just put the nine current seats up every two years based on seniority, it would go Thomas, Roberts, Alito, Kagan, Sotomayor, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, ACB, KBJ. I might have the two Dubya and two Obama appointees out of order, but it's definitely RRRDDRRRD. So assuming we start in 2026 and no one dies in between, if Kamala wins you'd get a D majority starting in 2028, and if she won two terms you'd have a 6-3 D majority. The next flip after that would require three R terms in a row. So... Unlikely. You'd have to shuffle them up to start somehow.
Approximately zero percent chance we'd start in 2026, though. Even popular amendments usually take longer to run through all the state legislatures, I think. Still good research. Might work out if Roberts/Alito/Thomas decided to retire or something, which I view as at least somewhat possible (in a longer timespan for ratification, maybe 4 years?)Edit: I stand corrected. Looks like most take about a year, and some take up to 3?
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