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Notes -
Neither is it literally impossible that the Arabs get their shit together this time -- just that there's not much evidence that they will, and plenty that seems to point in the other direction. Much like the situation in Ukraine.
Their only >1% path that I can see is somehow convincing NATO to start WW3 -- and since Russia has a lot more nukes than Israel, and is fighting in a place that does not include their own holiest sites, the chances disproportionately skewed towards the 'ruling over radioactive rubble' side of things for them than the Palestinians.
I think it's completely possible the West keeps funding Ukraine, maybe pays for some private military companies to help it too to make up for the manpower shortage. Russia goes deeper into debt, eventually their economy collapses, Ukraine wins by default. I don't know what exact number I'd put on that, but if the West doesn't give up on Ukraine, I'd maybe give it a 20% chance?
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