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Culture War Roundup for the week of July 22, 2024

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Trump only has one term left. Vance isn't just a VP, he's the MAGA successor.

Vance needs a successful Trump second term to run in 2028 and will use the VP position to get control of the GOP / RNC to secure his spot.

Here's a great article about how the Republicans are a patronage party, not a constituent party: https://scholars-stage.org/patronage-vs-constituent-parties-or-why-republican-party-leaders-matter-more-than-democratic-ones/

Many of the GOP establishment figures have no voter base. They are patrons who have built up a client base over the decades. Most of them don't realize how little voter base they have, their voters just tolerate them. Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell have a lot of control over their states political apparatus, but they had to cozy up to Trump before the 2020 election because the grassroots voters in their states were quite willing to vote them out in a primary for Trump supporting candidates.

Some of them just seem deluded. Liz Cheney seems to have honestly thought she was heading towards a presidential run.

Vance underperformed for a related reasons. He came in without patrons or clients. He wasn't part of any political machine. The RNC saw him as not their guy. There was big money against him.

He'll perform better in subsequent elections.

Vance as VP means that Republicans undermining Trump have a strong chance of being cut out of power until 2032, which dramatically changes how they will behave.

Really no VP choice will add much to the Trump ticket electorally. He's an extremely well known figure.

Often the VP choice is about extending an olive branch to other factions. Trump proved the other factions don't add up to much, so the Vance choice is about cutting a switch.

he's the MAGA successor

He is what certian interest hope could be the MAGA successor. I just don't see it. He is not electric at all and doesn't have the sort of weird Charsma that Trump has. Strangely enough with Trump as a spent force the RNC will find itself in the same boat as the DNC post-Obama. In a bind due to weird circumstances leading to only one person with any Charsma at all being a major player in the party.