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Notes -
I based my analysis on swing state polling, which showed a sharp turn toward Trump in the immediate aftermath of the debate but in the ensuing weeks leveled off with Trump gaining about a point. Certainly not the best outcome but it wasn't the kind of drop that would normally have one running toward the exits. The whole "path to victory" thing is hopelessly muddled anyway, with RFK Jr. being in the race. He's polling around 9% in some of these states, but there's no way he actually wins 9% of the vote there. Telling a pollster you're voting third party is easier than actually voting third party. It's not clear who Kennedy voters favor but if, as Republicans have been saying, they lean more left than right, it could make up for the gap. If Trump is up by, say, 4% in Pennsylvania but Kennedy is polling at 9%, half of Kennedy's voters breaking for Biden (and a negligible amount breaking for Trump) would be enough to close the gap. I honestly thought earlier that choosing RFK would be the best thing the Democrats could do because he'd in theory get his own voters plus Biden voters, which puts him in the lead in so many states it's not funny. Trump would have gone from talking about getting 320 electoral votes to being in danger of losing Texas. It's understandable (and probably advisable) that Democrats didn't elect to go this route, but it's an interesting thought experiment.
Except the polling isn’t that different including or excluding RFK Jr. On average, he seemed to bite into both major party candidates.
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