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PaperclipPerfector  4mo ago (text post)   1187 thread views

Transnational Thursday for July 18, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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I'm still somewhat surprised they've been able to block Suez transit. Since when was Yemen a major power?

Since nobody did anything about it.

Like, seriously, I'm surprised they haven't been flattened.

More to the point- since when did it take a major power to block Suez transit?

The technology that the Houthis are using to disrupt shipping is not particularly advanced. Military drones are not the sole domain of great powers, and haven't been for nearly a decade. The technology is ubiquitous, and well within the capacity of small states, especially when backed/supplied by other states.

Sure, some goat herders with a steady stream of Iranian drones can shut the straight down. But major powers(US, India, Saudi, France) can also bomb them back into the Stone Age, which they aren’t doing.

Bomb who, the goat herders? Goat herders are already Stone Age tech levels.

Iran, in turn, is a power who is at nuclear breakout capacity, which is to say that by the time they could be bombed back to the stone age, doing so would not only be extremely expensive on multiple fronts- more expensive than the impact to the Suez Canal- but by the time it could be accomplished, the Mullahs would almost certain bite the bullet and produce nuclear weapons for use.

Wrecking some tents in the desert doesn’t really do anything except kill some teenaged boys(and probably a bunch of slaves, traders, etc), but I highly doubt these drones are launched from random meadows that they’re brought to on the back of a camel/Toyota tundra. Hangars, launchsites, maintenance facilities, fueling equipment- all that can be blown up to the point of ‘goat herders can’t shoot at ships anymore’.

Not really. Your conception of how much it takes to launch drones like the Houthis is probably way, way, way more than is actually required.

Drones may fly, but they require nothing even within the same magnitude of care or capital and infrastructure as, say, your average commercial airport. When your requirements are that small-scale and ubiquitous- a 'maintenance facility' for a cheapo drone can be as minimal as a tarp on sticks- well, those tents in the desert are your hangers, maintenance facilities, and fueling depots. And well, precision munitions are expensive, and tarps and basic building materials are really, really cheap.

And that's just the monetary cost.

Yeah the beauty of modern drone weapons is that pretty much any electronics hobbyist has more than enough skill and money to build and fly them. State-level weapons at individual-level prices.

Well the US and UK bombed various parts of Yemen, who knows whether it was decoys or anything important. They sent a bunch of escorts for Operation Prosperity Guardian, which seems to have effectively failed.

Frankly I’m starting to believe the conspiracy theories about the attack on the USS Eisenhower. I don’t put much stock in Houthi press releases, but the behavior of the US and EU navies is much more consistent with that story being true than not true.

What story is that?

The Houthis claim they hit the USS Eisenhower with a missile while it was patrolling the Red Sea, and damaged it pretty badly. The US Navy denies it, but the ship did have to abruptly leave the Red Sea for “repairs” a day after the Houthis made the claim. And there’s some evidence it had to be towed, and wasn’t moving under its own power.

Interesting. If true that would be a big blow to the idea that US aircraft carriers are nigh-invincible.

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