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I think there is a general vibe shift against PMC and woke ideology, but really to me the big factor is economy. Dems oversaw a period of insane housing inflation (other stuff too but housing is just retarded at this point) and people remember the Trump years as pretty damn good in comparison.
Also I really do think Biden as a senile old man is an incredibly weak candidate. If you had an Al Gore or John Edwards type in this election as the Dem nominee I still think they would landslide Trump. I think Biden is just so feeble and weak that the contrast between him and Trump is insurmountable in terms of public perception of strength and competence.
The median voter owns a house with a 3% mortgage.
Housing inflation is a key way republicans try to appeal to the youth vote(because ‘just cut the forest down’ is at least a better response to nimbies than endless lawfare), but the average voter pissed about inflation is pissed about gas and grocery prices because their house payment has not gone up, except a bit in taxes.
Do you have numbers on that?
https://www.bankrate.com/homeownership/home-ownership-statistics/
Nationally north of 60% of people own a home. That rate is typically higher in swing states.
I couldn't find data on voters vs non-voters, but voting is generally correlated with good outcomes(like owning a home), so we can assume that if there's a mismatch it's in the direction of voters being more likely to own their house. And eyeballing the data it certainly looks like homeowners have generally been there for a while, meaning that their mortgage rate is likely low.
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