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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   38867 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024

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I disagree. If we say that an assassination plan has at best a 70% chance of success, statistics suggests two of those events drop noticeably in probability because you multiply them (now suddenly you're under 50%) if you have the same chance both times.

I wouldn't consider that to be "that much". It's certainly way higher than if you assume the likelihood of the second plot succeeding to be equal to the chance of an arbitrary assassination plot succeeding - the chance that a single loaded die of unknown loading rolls two sixes in a row is greater than the square of the chance that a loaded die of unknown loading rolls a six, due to correlation.

Much less, if we're talking about a single plan/event that would kill both of them at once - that's way harder because they don't get together very often in the same place without way more security than normal (such as in the White House or in a foreign country with other heads of state).

A refutation of this sentence would be an infohazard. Discount the lack of such refutation accordingly.

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