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What language does Vance speak that Trump doesn't? He may have a better backstory but he doesn't really bring in the kind of voters that aren't already considered Trump's base. It's not like he's going to have some special in with minorities, or suburban women, or professionals, or any other constituency that could give Trump any real advantage he doesn't already have. I'd also add that I while I think a bad VP choice could potentially cost you votes (see Sarah Palin), that a good VP pick gets you any votes is less clear. Pence may have helped Trump among Evangelicals, but in the states that decided the election in 2016 the Evangelical vote isn't particularly important.
He's not getting that many votes by running up the total in places like New Castle. In 2020 Trump got 4,310 votes in New Castle and Biden got 4,491, making it close to a 50/50 split. If Trump somehow manages to get 75% there (which isn't likely) that's still only about 2,000 more votes. There aren't 25 places like New Castle in Western PA. Being this generous lets him squeeze a few thousand more votes out of Sharon and Farrell, but after that it's slim pickings. Maybe some in the Beaver and Upper Ohio valleys. After that most of these areas are tapped. The mid-Mon Valley, where I'm originally from, is pretty tapped; white working class areas are already going for Trump by wide margins, and the blue areas are either heavily black or have high student populations. The Lower Mon Valley is pretty much a no-go zone for Republicans.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that Trump isn't going to win PA by leaning harder into his base; he actually needs to get back voters from 2016 he lost in 2020. And those aren't in places like Lawrence and Mercer counties that actually increased their share of the Trump vote in the last election. Looking at an area that already has 65% Trump support and making the election ride on getting that up to 70% doesn't seem like a winning strategy, especially when these areas don't have particularly high populations. He'd be counting on a 5–10% increase in each one of these areas just to get him to the 50–75 thousand you mention, which, by the way, still doesn't win the state for him. He needs votes in suburban Pittsburgh, which Vance isn't going to get him. He needs votes in NEPA, which I don't know enough about to know whether Vance can get him. And while they'd be welcome, he doesn't need more votes in places like Lawrence and Mercer Counties.
I of course just threw out new castle as an example. But yeah, you can look at more at a county level instead of town (Hermitage, Sharon, New Castle, etc).
It is a two prong attack. Trump is going to go to eastern PA / black areas and will try to play the role of uniter. He will tell suburban mom’s that they can trust him not to push abortion restrictions. He can talk to them about inflation. He can talk about the border. He can talk about how illegal immigrants are getting a better deal than minorities. He can talk about how much he wants to unite the country and how that has taken on a new meaning after the attempt on his life.
Vance can go to the more rural areas. He can talk about his background. How he isnt just some politician wanting their vote, but that he is one of them. That he grew up in towns not that unlike Sharon that went on hard times when Sharon Steel closed. He understands their struggles. And that Trump and he are wanting to fight for them. Again, maybe it isn’t 50-75k; maybe it is 25k-50k but it helps solidify a state that is looking like it leans Trump.
The problem is that Sharon Steel never closed and neither did the Armco Mill in Middletown, OH. They quit pouring steel at Sharon in the 90s and the ownership changed, but the rolling mill at Farrell and the galvanize line at Sharon are still open. Armco is owned by Cliffs now but the integrated mill is still in operation. Incidentally, jobs in the mills are easier to get now then they were in the 60s and 70s, when you probably had to know somebody. The problem with Sharon Steel is that they were disposing mill sludge by dumping it over embankments decades after they should have known that it was no longer an acceptable practice, and when they finally got dinged (in the middle of a recession nonetheless) by the EPA the damage was so bad that the fines forced them into bankruptcy. There was no broader economic reason for them to go under since they made specialty steel that wasn't affected as much by cheap imports. Other specialist companies like Allegheny Ludlum that at least pretended to follow the rules didn't have the same problems.
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