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Culture War Roundup for the week of July 8, 2024

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The amount of people who won't vote for a senile candidate but would vote for someone else must be greater than the Biden loyalists, right?

It doesn't really matter as long as the raw number of people who will throw a tantrum and refuse to vote for the D candidate is large enough that you'll lose.

If a sufficient percentage of people, see this insane person (aside to @2rafa, this is the straw-donor plaintiff for a future lawsuit against the Biden campaign for passing funds to a new candidate illegally), will only vote for Biden and not for a new candidate for reasons that might be absurd; then it doesn't matter if the group of people who won't vote for a senile candidate is larger or smaller. The Democrats can't afford to lose any part of the party, or they lose the election. They're going to try very hard to thread the needle and get everyone on board before they give up and make the Sophie's Choice of whether to lose by a lot or a little.

A handful of insane people on twitter may not represent a large enough voting bloc to matter. Also the person in that tweet would definitely vote for any dem, I'm guessing.

The Biden camp isn't simply Biden loyalists, but the broader Obama wing of the party. An institutional rebellion of scale sufficient to topple Biden also topples a lot of them.

Their place in the party is more or less still secure whether Biden wins or loses the election. It's far less secure if the party is subject to a sudden takeover, who then needs to go through the long and disruptive process of establishing their own loyalists and their own allies across the party machinery.