Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
Eh, Macron could have kept a coalition going with his party dominant in it for another three years. Now he definitely won't have that; Ensemble is at best going to be an equal partner.
Who's won is complicated, because you need a majority to get a Prime Minister and NFP does not have anything close to a majority.
The most likely coalition to actually work, eyeballing it, is NFP minus LFI (the largest and most extreme party in NFP) plus assorted non-NFP leftists plus Ensemble plus Les Républicains (NFP minus LFI plus Ensemble plus assorted leftists does not have a majority, and LFI and Ensemble have promised not to work with each other). The problem is, Les Républicains have said they won't go along with that.
Another possibility would be simply NFP plus Ensemble, but that has the LFI vs. Ensemble issue - LFI's primary policy goal is to chuck out the Constitution and start over, which isn't really amenable to compromise and which Ensemble, as agents of the status quo, really don't want.
Another possibility would be enough members of Ensemble willing to break the cordon to form a coalition with RN and Les Républicains (and assorted rightists), although the numbers don't look promising for that as some in Macron's own party within Ensemble, the least favourable to breaking the cordon, would be needed for a majority.
The last, ever-present possibility, of course, is no deal and a deadlocked legislature until Macron can call another snap election in a year.
NB: I'm not an expert and may be wrong about some stuff here.
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