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This is too clever by half. Swapping candidates puts the new candidate in an impossible position unless it is Harris, who is unpopular and subject to plenty of attacks as it is. The new candidate, like Humphrey, will be tied to every Biden policy without the advantage of being the incumbent. They'll have all the downsides of incumbency, tied to unpopular policies in Israel and at home, while having few of the advantages. If people feel good under Joe Biden, do they automatically think they will feel good under Big Gretch? Idk.
It's important to note that the one example we have of this happening, the Dems in '68, it was a complete disaster.
On a smaller scale, it also happened twice in 2002-2004 when MN Senate candidate Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash just before the election and a NJ Senator had to drop out due to corruption charges after the nomination deadline passed. The results were mixed, but there was a wave of sympathy for Wellstone which just fell short, and a burst of enthusiasm in NJ that carried the replacement candidate to victory.
With Biden, however, there is no upside to sticking in the race because the optics are horrible, and it threatens to taint the entire party if they try to push him over the line and it fails because everyone can see how desperate it is. So do you stick with an obvious and likely losing deceit, or do try something more positive?
In Missouri in 2000, Senatorial candidate Mel Carnahan also died in a plane crash just before the election, and he won.
It seems that sometimes a tragic death can be electorally beneficial. (I hope that just saying that doesn't bring the Secret Service down upon me.)
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