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Notes -
I don't see why the presidential popular vote is a better guide than the congressional margin, congressional margin is much closer to what is actually going on in parliamentary politics.
And I would say that Brexit is, in its own way, significantly worse than Vietnam. It depantsed the entire political class, as they were collectively found to have no plan to get the thing done or for what came after.
Well, the original poll that I posted and numbers I cited was from an opinion poll-of-polls of UK voters, not Parliament MP counts. I'm just comparing apples to apples here, with another similar poll-of-polls of US voters. Maybe a similar pattern exists for the House/Parliament, but since the next election hasn't happened yet, we don't have new MP counts to compare, so it's a moot point on that level. I guess we'll see! UK and US both use first past the post, right?
Yeah, maybe I undersold Brexit. I thought things would end up more or less becoming business as usual, but I guess that wasn't so much the case. It's interesting though, if Brexit was really the cause, there's clearly some sort of lag going on (as people sour on Brexit?) because the slide doesn't seem to have stopped with the completion of Brexit, other than a brief 3-month bump after formalization (end of 2020, right?)
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