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I will dispute 3). Greg Abbott is not personally very charismatic but has an incredible amount of support among red voters on the basis of his record, is good at politics, and can stand on what's more than likely to be twelve years of a well-managed economy and relative racial peace. His weak spot is abortion but that issue is probably about as prominent as it's ever going to be. He's among Trump's favorites right now and all he has to do is maintain that spot to get the backing of Trump personally in 2028. It's unlikely that there's any kind of major scandal still undiscovered about him, either.
It remains to be seen if backing from Trump is even an asset in 2028. Trump kiss-asses don't have a great track record in elections, and while Abbot is certainly much more savvy than someone like Kris Kobach, if Trump loses this year it remains to be seen if Republicans continue to ride the Trump Train. Actually, if Trump loses this year it remains to be seen whether he can be persuaded to sit out in 2028. Yeah, he'll be 82 but he'll continue to talk about what great shape he's in, and he never gave a fuck about any Republican Party that he wasn't at the center of, so it's not like he'll be persuaded not to run. His own base is so dedicated that he'll suck up a large percentage of primary votes just by being in the race and any contender will need to stand head and shoulders above the crowd to have any kind of chance.
In general, I think it's premature to start talking about who the next big contenders will be. It wasn't that long ago that everyone thought Ron DeSantis was the future of the Republican Party. Unfortunately, he didn't kiss Trump's ring because he thought it would hurt his chances in Florida, ending any chance of being the heir apparent, and then compounded the error by running against Trump directly but refusing to criticize him. I outlined the challenges DeSantis faced here on several occasions and I remember getting heavily downvoted by merely suggesting that he wasn't all he was cracked up to be. Maybe it looks like Abbot is making all the right moves from where we sit now, but in four years those could easily turn out to have been the wrong moves.
Abbott has enough distance from Trump that he won't go down with the ship when Trump predictably fails to solve the US's biggest problems. Ensuring that is probably the main reason he turned down Trump's veepspot on live TV.
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