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Yeah, I think there's a pretty critical underlying value disagreement. Even were a choir of angels to descend from heaven with a device that could guarantee not only whether a specific person was trans, but even whether they'd be happier to transition or not, I don't think social conservatives and the pro-trans side would be able to agree even in the most convenient world.
And in the world we're in, it's looking increasingly like that magical device might change from 'yes' to 'no' for a single person over time in some cases, which is pretty far from convenient. Social conservatives reject the framework that this change reflects internalization of transphobia or the harsher limits of later transition (usually, I think, in favor of seeing it as 'puberty naturally solving the discomfort'), but even accepting it doesn't actually change the value conflict: social conservatives absolutely will bit the bullet in favor of distress for a couple years to avoid sizable surgical interventions, even well outside of the trans sphere.
Yeah, half of the transhumanists balk when I point it out, but transhumanism really is at the core of the issue.
But even then I think I disagree there's no compromise to be had. I think even a decent chunk of conservatives could tolerate people going full-cyborg when they're adults, it's insisting that it's necessary for children that crosses the line.
And then it doesn't help that this is combined with all sorts of demands to rearrenge the social order.
I think the more critical part is the extent that social conservative (and other non-progressive) interests are being cordoned off, even in red states or outside of state interests. I don't yet agree with FCFromSSC's thesis that multiculturalist approaches are fundamentally doomed, but they're very clearly not something anyone with serious power is willing to accept.
It's demonstrably possible make the argument for people's right to make medical decisions or talk up the right to freedom in education, while wanting to ban homeschooling or require medical procedures, because that's become The Accepted Position, but it's little more than multi-culturalism-for-me.
On the silver lining side, the broader movement is in the process of eating itself alive over other contradictions, so the lack of interest in accepting more minimal takes has its costs. Hell, I don't think the transhumanist part will survive, because no small portion of the pro-trans not-actually-trans-themselves world hates transhumanism-as-practiced; cfe the various reactions to VR or weight loss drugs or AI or yada yada.
But that's a pretty shitty silver lining, and the movement can be incoherent longer than you can stay solvent.
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The children thing is weird, and like most things I think we have a pretty good handle on it by "do what you want after 18, before then, NO. Having big time drugs or surgery before then is a large mistake currently because it is irreversible, if that isn't the case in the future it will obviate this entire problem. If a child or adult can be one sex at 9 am and another at 10 am why would anyone care about any of this anymore?
Except we don't actually have that handle on it. Trans activists explicitly claim that these interventions for children are medically necessary, and care providers privately share tips with each other on how to wear down reluctant parents' resistance.
I can grant that the issue goes both ways, as there are also more conservative parents that want to ban it for everyone, but I'm regularly surprised at people's assumption that this issue is currently being handled the same way as tattoos or cosmetic surgery.
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