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Notes -
What’s up with Russians who fled abroad at the start of the war nowadays? It looks pretty certain at this point that they won’t be conscripted and Russia won’t go bankrupt anytime soon. Has there been a silent remigration wave or are they just stay put in Georgia/Turkey/Kazakhstan wherever now
why you think so?
Even when the war was developing very dangerously for the Russian army they have only ran a very limited conscription scheme that amounted to “urged volunteering” of the lowest classes of the society. My understanding is that they sent summons to stg like 10 times the men they needed and as soon as the targets were reached by people voluntarily responding to the summons in 1-3 days they immediately ceased recruitment. I am not aware of any coerced conscription of a Russian man who would otherwise definitely not enter the army.
Right now the Russian army has a clear upper hand in fighting and reportedly a steady stream of volunteers. Meanwhile an incredibly disquieting amount of press gang/abduction style of conscription videos are coming out of Ukraine.
This is my reasoning for why there won’t be ever real conscription for this war in Russia. Russian speaking friends I have talked to seems to agree with this assessment
They used the prisoners massively. But this resource is not infinite, and even now it's not enough - conscription already happens, just not where it can be easily seen.
That's what happens when you match a totalitarian country with a non-totalitarian one. On one side, you only see what the regime wants you to see, on the other side, you see what people are really worried about. So, Russia turns out to be the victorious superpower with people itching to join the glorious Red Army while Ukraine seems to be a collapsing mess which nobody wants to defend. Just as in 1930s you could hear all about how USSR economy is steadily advancing towards communism while Western economy is utterly collapsing. And nobody would talk about what's actually happening in the USSR at that time.
"real" is doing a lot of work here. Of course Russia powers would do the most to make it not "real" for as long as possible - so far, they use marginal populations - prisoners, people from far regions who nobody has heard about, etc. - how many could point on the map where Buryatia is? They have 100x loss rate from the war compared to Moscow. Nobody cares, because nobody would care if every single adult age male there disappeared at all - except, I presume, Buryats themselves, but who'd even ask them. There are many such regions. The places like Moscow and SPb are affected much less, so it's not "real" - and won't be "real" for a while yet, because they have a lot of resources to feed from.
Ukraine's opsec is miles better than Russia's, though. You don't see a lot of the stuff Ukraine doesn't want you to see, which is why people are constantly surprised when Ukraine finally admits the situation isn't as rosy as NAFO imagines it.
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Is the Russian army still using prison recruitment at a serious rate anymore?
I will not bother with seriously replying to the second paragraph because it’s hysterical. For all its faults, there is a more or less free flow of people and information in and out of Russia so I will trust the conclusions I can draw up for myself from the available data unless you can provide anything better. The only thing hampering me from accessing information about Russia is EU’s ban on Russian news outlets.
No it really isn’t. My question was regarding educated Russians who are working IT jobs in Kazakhstan or whatever. Yes I am aware that Russia recruits (not conscripts, recruits) heavily among certain groups who are poorer and have martial traditions. Every single modern army does this. Istanbul boys don’t fight Turkey’s wars and New Yorkers don’t fight Americas wars.
There are a lot of Texans in the Army, and Texas is one of the wealthier states with abundant economic opportunities even in rural areas. Now natives and appalachians and blacks from the deep south are so overrepresented partly because of unemployment in their home territories, it's true, but military service runs in families for a big chunk of the force rather than being driven by economic factors.
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Operation Bagration was a clear upper hand. Right now, the Russian army is strong enough to exploit Ukrainian tactical failures, but nowhere near strong enough to create opportunities of its own.
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There's a small remigration wave, about 15% of the initial wave, but all three of my male cousins that GTFO'd out of Russia are remaining abroad, even though only one of them has a job that pays well.
What’s their reasoning for staying?
The war isn't over yet and there's always a risk of another mobilization.
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