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Well, this is all fine, but I don't think anybody is going to change what they believe because you don't think it's feasible or moral. I also don't think it means much that your evaluation of these factors makes you believe it's not a serious ideological notion/trend. After all, all of the world's "respectable" and Very Serious People thought it was infeasible and immoral that Trump would win in 2016. They thought/think the same of Brexit, that a significant portion of the population absolutely refused to receive a 2019 Wuhan, China novel coronavirus vaccine, that a significant portion of the population still doesn't support the notion of transsexuality, etc. As you might say: And?
Of course, that's all still a far cry from some general overarching revolution/restoration/reaction, but that doesn't always mean anything. The NSDAP receiving less than 3% of the vote in 1928 was a far cry from what they'd achieve by 1933, which was still a far cry from what they'd do in 1939, and the same on to their massive victory over France in 1940 and then complete defeat and debellation in 1945. The Taliban seemed defeated forever to many by December 2001 (since as mentioned the same thing that happened to them happened to the NSDAP in 1945 and they never recovered from it), but by 2003 they were back in the fight at least. And now since the middle of 2021 they are back to absolutely and entirely controlling the fate and character of their society again with no signs of that abating. But anything could happen and maybe in 10 or 20 years they'll be out of power again.
Just because history has been relatively quiet in the West since WW2 or so (not that long) doesn't mean it's not still a raging bull that isn't afraid to buck its supremely confident riders off back on their asses in the mud just the same as everyone else, same as it's done hundreds if not thousands of times. If nothing changes significantly for 1000 years, then sure go with Fukuyama and maybe declare the end of history. But it's not even been 100 years and we're already seeing the general post-WW2 social order fraying (and the modern openly post-Christian and/or pro-whoredom social order is even younger and weaker than that).
Appeal can change rapidly, especially with women. (Going based on the NSDAP as mentioned before, imagine how much being an early member of that then-fringe NSDAP probably harmed your general desirability with German women in 1925. Now imagine how much it increased it by 1935. Women more than most demographic groups have a general tendency to back Osama bin Laden's infamous "strong horse", even if it's the horse that mauled and ran past the horse they supported just yesterday.) But yes, it is correct to point out that a significant amount of history has happened without women having much of a choice in the matter (which I do indeed support, or at least don't think is anything avoidable, given how much less generally historically agentic women are than men in general).
And 50% of men not having a need fairly low on Maslow's hierarchy met is insane and a severe indictment of society's handling of the issue (so much so that again I don't think it matters what its Very Serious People or those who otherwise subscribe to its conventionalities think about alternative solutions, same as you wouldn't really care what somebody who got a 50% in algebra thinks about your factoring of a polynomial), and that there's not much reason to think the probability of some degree of widespread violence resulting from that is essentially zero.
To mirror your own objections, keep in mind that "not interested" and "not looking" doesn't necessarily mean exclusively aromantics (as I think those who genuinely belong to this group are a very small part of humanity) but also includes plenty of men who would be interested/looking (or more likely already married) in a better society, if they didn't think it was totally pointless in the face of modern feminine-favored romantic norms. Also undercounted are men who are technically in a relationship but still a significantly less happy one than they would be in under more traditional romantic norms.
You're the one who is, in my reading, trying to claim it is mostly impossible that romantically/sexually dissatisfied men of the modern West could be capable of having any capacity for widespread violence and change while frequently gesturing at their romantic/sexual difficulties/perceived undesirability as a factor determining that. So I'm not getting at anything other than determining what you're trying to get at, but I can only think now that you're being deliberately evasive and refusing to clarify.
The "banally" does not erase the "true", especially when you seem to be apparently trying to entirely deny that said banal truth could apply to romantic/sexual unhappiness. If all wars are started by men who aren't happy about something, then a large number of men, such a 50%, who are unhappy about the romantic/sexual state of society and their lives could probably start a war with a probability that is by no means guaranteed to be zero, right? If you agree with that, then the vast majority of the disagreement we've been having so far disappears. If not, then I want a hard and less evasive answer as to why not.
Well, what do you have in mind (that I guess apparently mostly doesn't involve anything that already worked before throughout all of human history, since you seem to mostly scoff at traditionalism)? I'm fine with more practical/immediate solutions being applied in the short term if they're effective (though I would also absolutely like that revolution to happen, and while I do find it unlikely at least in the short-term, if I could to any degree make it more likely, I would like to, so I might reject even objective improvements if I think they're band-aids that could keep the beast limping along for longer and trap us in a significantly inferior local maximum that too strongly reduces the probability of reaching the proper global maximum).
So let me try to clarify: I do think most of the incels complaining about how society has done them wrong and just wait and see, they're going to rise up, are weak and ineffectual men who aren't going to do shit, and this does correlate with them being sexually undesirable.
Does that mean I think it's "mostly impossible" that lonely, unhappy men in general might cause social change and even unrest? No, but I do not see that taking the form of your LARPs. If you wish to dismiss my skepticism as being akin to early skeptics of Nazis or Trump, whatever dude. There are many stories of skeptics who turned out to be wrong, but many more stories of skeptics who turned out to be entirely correct.
To answer your question literally, yes, I agree that the probability "is by no means guaranteed to be zero." Is that really what you're asking? Because almost no prediction has a probability "guaranteed to be zero."
If what you really mean is "Do I think it's highly unlikely?", yes, I think it's highly unlikely. It's highly unlikely because you are trying to read "50% of men feel unlucky in love" as "50% of men are so seethingly unhappy that they just need the right push to start a revolution." This is not 1928 Germany. Or if it is, not on the sexual front. Of all the things I can imagine leading to a revolution or massive social upheaval, incels would not be in the top twenty.
I don't scoff at traditionalism so much as compelled traditionalism, which is what guys like you usually turn out to be after. I think a tradlife is just fine for those who want it, but not so much for men who fantasize about, essentially, taking away women's right to decline the proposition. So short of that, I think all the various culture wars we discuss here regularly are pretty bad for society and contributing to widespread unhappiness. I don't claim to have concrete solutions; if I had a workable plan to end polarization and political extremism, I would be writing books about it. In general, however, as individuals we could do a much better of job of extending charity, grace, and compassion, rather than darkly rubbing our hands together as we await the Day of the Knife.
Yes, I agree with this mostly. I just think that this also probably applied to most the early supporters of most movements that were eventually successful. I doubt your average communist in Russia in 1900 was much of anything other than a loser, same with your average German far rightist in 1920. Now does this guarantee the revenge of the nerds? No, because there have also been plenty of losers who were supporters of fringe ideologies who have gone nowhere. But it does mean that them going nowhere is hardly guaranteed.
What's the difference between my "LARPs" and the actual forms in which they might cause such unrest in your view?
Well fair, but what I was getting at is whereas I would put it as probably no less likely than 1 out of 1000, it seems like you would put it at more like 1 out of 10 million. And again, just based on how many people it affects, I simply don't see the justification for such a low valuation.
I mean yes, you're correct. On the sexual front, it's far worse.
In the aggregate and long-run, there is no traditionalism other than compelled traditionalism, same as there are no pigs who don't wallow in mud who haven't been forced not to. As individuals, humans are weak, lustful, and impulse-driven animals. Only a strong social structure can free them from their base desires.
They contribute to widespread unhappiness worse than at least 20-25% of the population (at least) being denied one of the most basic human psychological needs and all of the knock-on effects that result (along with all of the other maladies of abandoning traditionalism, like the proliferations of addiction, pornography, and obesity)? Somehow I doubt that.
Nah. I genuinely psychologically value savoring even a .1% chance of a grand Day of the Rope over the mutual extending of charity, grace, and compassion with those who I feel are evil and deserve punishment. My enemies are my enemies. I want their misery, not their charity. Anything else is simply a tactic or unfortunate but necessary compromise.
Btw, why did you even suggest we discuss "more practical solutions" if you were just planning on readily admitting right after that you don't really have any (other than substance-free "Let's just all try to get along!"-ism (which I both don't think has ever worked in human history and is almost always, at least as far I've seen, simply an excuse for one side to try to more covertly suppress the other without their opposition, as I think it still is in your formulation))?
I have practical solutions, but they are long term, a lot of work, incremental, and unsatisfying to people who just want to flip the table. I'm mostly a moderate normie who'd rather work within the system, and probably one of the people you want to put up against the wall, so this is me extending charity, grace, and compassion.
Well then assume I'm like you, an ally. What would you suggest to me in that case? Or make a top-level post or something. Sorry but it's just kind of disingenuous to claim you have the goods contrary to my pie-in-the-sky notions and then not deliver.
Btw, why do you think I'd want to put you up against the wall?
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I mean the average Russian communist in 1900 was likely some kind of urban intellectual or other educated or semi-educated young man with big plans. The average German far rightist in 1920 was in the Freikorps if he was a younger fellow maybe, but they spanned a wide range of social classes and status categories.
Plenty of guys nowadays that you can describe with the same adjectives nowadays are still losers, at least romantically/sexually speaking. In any case I doubt having truly fringe political beliefs has ever helped your romantic chances with women much on average, with the exception of a few guys with enough charisma to act as charming rebel types. (Obviously young Stalin slayed. Just look at him.)
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