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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   3795 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for June 2, 2024

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What are the odds of getting two heads in a row (on two independent unbiased coin flips)? Do you know the answer? How many UK politicians do you think can get the right answer? 52%, sample size of 101 (Source here)

Math is hard. If, in a few seconds, you can see the relationship between 30 mile/gallon and $3/gallon means you get 10 miles per dollar, so for 450 miles you spend 45 dollars, then you probably have enough quantitative ability to work a six-figure job.

But broadly you're right. Talent is rarest resource in the universe and you can't make people smarter. But you only need one Newton or Haber to advance the frontier.

Math is hard. If, in a few seconds, you can see the relationship between 30 mile/gallon and $3/gallon means you get 10 miles per dollar, so for 450 miles you spend 45 dollars, then you probably have enough quantitative ability to work a six-figure job.

You can take a few seconds longer and just brute-force the calculation through 15 gallons. I guess the problem is that using math to solve problems feels like work to a large percentage of the population, so they don't do it if they can get away with not doing it. Why keep a rough running total of your shopping cart contents in your head when the cashier will just ring it up and you can just pay with your credit card? If you really must reduce your spending, then you can just sit down, get your calculator out and do work.

How many UK politicians do you think can get the right answer? 52%, sample size of 101

That's actually so much better than I was expecting. Whew.

But broadly you're right. Talent is rarest resource in the universe and you can't make people smarter. But you only need one Newton or Haber to advance the frontier.

The frontier advancement is obviously important stuff, but still, having worked in orgs full of, say, approx 140+ IQ people and orgs that must be approx 115 IQ people, I can tell you the former is insanely productive and refreshing and the latter is almost oppressive and gets mired in stupid shit. I can't help but extrapolate to all of society and think how much harder better faster stronger the rest of the world would be if we brought the average up.

That's actually so much better than I was expecting. Whew.

You are much more cynical than me. And I am extremely cynical, but damn, still not enough. Failing this in any capacity is just inexcusable.

It's still a disappointing result, don't get me wrong, but my prior was pretty low for MPs.

I don't disagree. I think this is the thesis of Garrett Jones' "Hive Mind" book, but I haven't read it.

It would have to be genetic engineering, or embryo selection, or something like that. But selecting for intelligence is thought of negatively for arbitrary reasons.

Not so arbitrary; selecting for intelligence may have its drawbacks. The infamous paper Natural History of Ashkenazi Intelligence (NHAI) hypothesizes that Europe accidentally selected the Ashkenazi Jews for intelligence for 800 years, and that their population also got a larger proportion of genetic brain disorders compared to human baseline as a result. The implicit warning is that anyone attempting a similar result on purpose will get genetic brain disorders in the resulting population.

Some people try to find scientific refutations for this hypothesis (PDF), instead of outright rejecting it as “eugenics bad” and refusing to do science.

I think hive mind actually says average IQ is more important than your geniuses for a country level wealth.

My guess it’s because any country can do catch up growth (mostly), but having low IQ makes politics and institutions too crappy.

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