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Notes -
100mm would be a massive increase. Trump only got 74mm in 2020 (losing by 6 million).
It’s possible that a felony conviction will get him 20mm more votes but I think that’s pretty unlikely.
This is fair.
I reached the numbers for my wager through personal belief, it's nothing specifically evidenced: I believe at least 10% of Trump's ballots were destroyed in 2020 with methods that will fail this November--physically destroyed, fraudulently marked invalid, "lost", compromised machines modifying totals--that takes 74 to 81, +10 from the verdict is 91, and then enough to reach the over on 95.5 with "any other factor", which refers to the fallout from the establishment's next move when the verdict fails. In the event of a failed assassination attempt I'd add a second over on 105 million.
Again though feel free to write this off immediately as "just what this guy believes", I have no actual argument here.
Why would these methods fail now?
Sure COVID was a thing in 2020, but Trump was in power and already suspicious of rigged elections. Despite that, the rigging took place ant 10% and there was no concrete evidence?
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