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Notes -
There are a few things things wrong with your post.
Trump Organization reimbursed Cohen. The prosecutors treated TO and Trump as the same. Therefore Trump turned the payment by Cohen (which is limited) into a payment by Trump. Trump is allowed to make unlimited contributions to his own campaign. See Buckley v Valeo.
It is far from clear that the payment to Stormy constitutes a campaign contribution. Indeed, the law is designed to limit the ability for candidates to use campaign funds for mixed motive expenses (eg a suit) since the opportunity for abuse is obvious.
So it isn’t clear under either reading that there was a campaign finance violation. Moreover, it is clear that if properly structured (ie Trump himself made the payment) there is no criminal FECA violation (at worst there was a reporting obligation in 2017).
Now we get to intent. Yes, you can generally infer from actions what intent was. For example, if Person A points a gun at B and pulls the trigger, it is reasonable to infer he intended to shoot B as that is a natural consequence of the action. This is different. There is a requirement as an element that the false records were intended to in this case to avoid FECA. This seemingly suggests there needs to be more than the normal case; it seems to require that Trump knew what he was doing was to break a law.
First, no info was offered that Trump was thinking of any law.
Second, even if you don’t think Trump needs to think he was breaking the law (which seems really hard here) it is not a reasonable inference from the action (ie filing the records a certain way) that there was an intention to violate FECA (especially since it is far from clear there was a violation). Even worse, it is really clear Trump could’ve easily structured the transaction to avoid any FECA issue. So we are supposed to believe that Trump knew what he was doing was a FECA obligation, and either had the choice to slightly restructure the transaction (without changing economics) or he decided to break FECA and falsify business records. Does the latter even sound reasonable? Reasonable enough to get past reasonable doubt? No way.
It isn’t clear that unlawful means something that is illegal under laws other than the US. What if there was some action a campaign did wherein business records were falsified and it hid say a violation of Russian law. Would that be captured? What if it was Alaskan law?
Finally the records were internal records. How would Trump think these records would ever be requested in relation to NY somehow regulating a federal election?
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