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Saved. You can force me to steelman anything on here if he goes into custody.
Putting some bounds on this: my prediction is that, in sentencing, Mercham imposes a penalty that effectively bars Trump from campaigning. Jail would count, house arrest would count. Probation or some other arrangement could depend on the terms. If these things don't happen, and Trump is able to go back to campaigning regularly, you win. I would consider myself the winner if Merchan puts Trump under house arrest, and Trump violates parole and goes out campaigning anyways.
I would consider this bet void if for some reason sentencing doesn't happen. But I could be convinced to give you the win if this matters to you. (For example, sentencing gets delayed past the election, for some reason.) I would consider you the winner if Merchan imposes any terms that would otherwise cause me to win, but then immediately pends consequences. (Trump is placed under house arrest, but it doesn't start until after appeals, which end up lasting through the election).
You are welcome to propose amended terms and offer stake, I'm just trying to be fair but won't take this too seriously if it's not something you want to commit hard to.
Ultimately, I think Merchan will say, contempt of court, threat to democracy, 34 felonies, grave offenses, defendent shows no contrition, boom, house arrest / jail. Sorry Mr. Former President, you can have the RNC Convention Speech when you've thought about what you've done and promise to be a good little boy.
I would say I lose the bet if Trump is significantly inconvenienced in campaigning in any way. I think he'll miss a few days for court appearances etc; I don't think he'll be jailed, placed under house arrest, removed from the planned debates, prevented from campaigning or holding events in any state on the grounds of his felony conviction, removed from the ballot in any state. Prior to the election. After the election is anyone's guess.
Why that happens procedurally is irrelevant to my belief, I just think the Dems are too ayam to pull the trigger when the chips are down. So in my mind sentencing doesn't happen prior to the election, or he's sentenced to prison with a report date after the election, is a win for team cowardice.
That all sounds fair to me. Feel free to add stakes or keep it a gentleman's wager.
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