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Notes -
I would take the bet that Trump wins in November, although I made the same bet in 2020 and lost so I suppose my reputation isn't worth much. I can't see Biden improving between here and election day, and I don't believe that losing this trial is going to do anything other than galvanize the Republican base.
Ironically, I think the only thing that would tank Trump would be some group of his supporters turning their guns on a group of civilians. So long as Trump and Republican voters win support as the downtrodden underclass taking on the elites things are good. The left wants to portray them as dangerous paramilitary units - the Proud boys, Charlottesville, Pittsburgh synagogue shooting, etc. were all major gifts to Democrats.
Interestingly, I have Biden winning with the same set of priors, except that I find right wing violence highly likely between now and November.
Which will be utterly disorganized and poorly-aimed, cracked down upon harshly, and only serve to further weaken the right and strengthen the left.
Yup. A retarded guy in a Q themed Hawaiian shirt is gonna kill a cop and we're gonna hear about it all fall.
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