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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   27993 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of May 27, 2024

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I am talking out of my ass of course. And would say you are doing likewise. Putting probabilities on things like this is an inexact science but my read on Russia has me in that camp.

Interesting though if the rest of my probabilities are correct a 1% chance of 100 million lives lost in a nuclear exchange added to my probabilities would still marginally favor American troops on the ground. Current war strategy on both sides of attritional warfare probably costs another 200-400k Ukranian lives and some multiple of that in Russian lives. Versus in my scenario the dominant probability is Russia backs down and sues for peace after a show of NATO force. The primary result of which would be Russia viewing Ukraine as no longer winnable.

Current war strategy on both sides of attritional warfare probably costs another 200-400k Ukranian lives and some multiple of that in Russian lives.

"some multiple"? That's retarded. It's Ukraine not letting its men out and catching them on streets, not Russia. It's Ukraine who asked "all for all" POWs swap. Given how slow fronts are moving, losses are probably close to 1"1

In case "Russia backs down" you do not consider a number of deaths in civil war in Russia, just NATO shows and everything becomes good and sweet?

Why is Russia having a civil war. I am not sure why I have to account for deaths in a war that hasn’t happened.

I support better guns for Ukraine so they can win the war faster with fewer casualties.

Russia is not having, but they will if what you see as most desirable outcome happens.

I support ignorant war-mongers like you to go in trenches and fight.

I am advocating for peace. I don’t know how many times I need to repeat this.

"beat them up so they would beg for peace" (with option: to show an example for all potential troublemakers) isn't exactly a peace position.

If you are going to trash an idea for peace you need to propose other actions that will result in peace.

It looks like you're using Ukraine's mobilization intensity as the sole factor of judging losses, without considering that Ukraine is a lot smaller and has a smaller mobilization pool in the first place.

It looks like you're missed sliders1234's point "some multiple" (again: SOME MULTIPLE) which and that it's easier to recruit people for defensive war which would have offset Russia's population advantage.

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