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The reason I bring up Russia's weakness is that it is farcical that they will attack Germany, Poland, Estonia, or other NATO countries.
This is why being anti-war is hard. Every time I bring up my anti-war stance, a bunch of people appear in my replies accusing me of being pro-Russia. I am not justifying Russia's reasons for fighting. Russia is wrong.
Russia is at fault for the Ukraine War
Russia does not present a compelling alternative to Western hegemony. The West is best.
Putin's justifications of the war are not valid
All of these are true, and yet the war should be ended immediately on practical grounds.
The passive voice here is the problem. If I am doing British politics (and I am, as a British citizen posting on a political forum during an election campaign) then "the war should be ended" is either irrelevant cant, or a way of saying "A coalition of civilized countries including the UK should end the war" while dodging the question of how. If NATO actually wanted to end the war without relying on Russia or Ukraine's willingness to act against their perceived self-interest to help us, the fastest way to do so would be to provide Ukraine with sufficient support to win it.
As far as I can see 90% of the people saying "the war should be ended" mean "the civilized world, led by the US, should jawbone Ukraine into surrendering to Russia*". The practical consequences of this probably include the enslavement, expulsion, or extermination of the Ukrainian people (which of these being largely down to the whims of a madman), so how the jawboning is supposed to work is left as an exercise to the reader. I would not wish to speculate how many of the people on the centre and left saying "the war should be ended" would still be willing to say so if they thought about what they were actually saying. I am reasonably comfortable that the pro-Putin right know exactly what they are doing.
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It's just not really reasonable to call people who support the defense of a nation "pro war". If someone attacks me after making it clear they want to kill me I am not pro-fighting when I defend myself. People who support me defending myself are not pro-fighting. It's unreasonable to demand I or the people supporting me should allow the person attacking me to merely severe a limb or two despite them at no point actually making any sign they'd stop after doing so. There is precisely one pro-war faction and it's the one that started the war and could end it at any time, attempting to frame it otherwise is an absurdity.
And yes, we do have some obligation here, Ukraine get rid of its nuclear capabilities under the promise that this would not be allowed to happen. Where Ukraine goes so does nuclear non-proliferation and frankly and kind of mantle of justice.
Victory at any cost is a pro-war position. Throwing out all cost/benefit calculations because Russia started it is unreasonable.
At least spell out what you wouldn't be willing to do to reclaim Ukrainian territory.
I wouldn't be willing to condone firing a nuclear weapon into Russian territory. But supplying Ukrainians with weapons is not even in the ballpark of when we start talking about "any cost", those are the minimum table stakes.
You're trying to change the frame. There is no such offer where Ukraine draws new borders and returns to peace with Russia, It's fictional and the Putin's equally fictional Casus Belli remains, no serious person would trust a peace agreement he has already broken.
Thank you. I respect that.
This discussion originally got started with U.S. boots on the ground which is what I said is "insane" and other users wouldn't renounce. So we need to decide what we're actually talking about here.
I'm trying to understand how you and other people on this forum think the war will end. I suppose a frozen conflict like North Korea/South Korea is possible and if you're advocating for that I can accept it's a reasonable position.
How do you think it will end?
Everything I see from Russia makes me thing it’s win or lose.
What you propose of current lines would seem to be a frozen conflict but I don’t think Russia will make that offer.
I don't know honestly. Here's some things that I think are possible.
Best case scenario would probably be Putin dying which would allow both sides to negotiate without looking weak.
After that, a frozen conflict is possible and not too bad
Ukraine might collapse and negotiate a separate peace under unfavorable terms. If this happens, it will be better if it happens sooner as fewer people will die. More likely it will happen after some years and there won't be much worth saving.
Russia might collapse. Unlikely but it's possible.
West sends boots on the ground. This unlocks a lot of different outcomes: from Russia being sent home with tail between its legs, to an embarrassing fiasco for NATO, to a nuclear exchange. <-- #5 is where I don't want to be.
Who knows. All those scenarios have risks for the most part of “something happens in Russia” and they decide to use nukes or an Ukraine collapse would trigger a dozen countries to get nukes.
The highest upside outcome would be US boots on the ground. Actually less insane that you make it sound. Outcomes
70% chance Putin sees that and immediately sues for peace. This actually provides Putin an out. Losing a war to Ukraine is disgraceful. Surrendering to the U.S. army is not disgraceful. No bullets get fired and lives are saved.
20-29% chance Putin is locked in and we get to see the liberation of Kuwait two. Few US casualties. American generals get to show off their toys and have a good time. China receives a strong message on Taiwan. America most comes together happy we slaughtered the dragon.
Some percent chance tactical nukes are used. Low percent chance he tries nuking population cities.
These assumptions seem far to optimistic to me.
Russia is not some backwater country like Iraq. They were a superpower just 35 years ago. U.S. boots on the ground will mean tens of thousands of U.S. casualties at a minimum. It will also result in the destruction of the GPS satellite network, as well as likely disruptions to shipping and all sorts of other unknown consequences.
Your scenarios say there is a 90-99% probability that everything goes well. I would put scenario 1 at less than 10% and scenario 2 at about 10%. Russia is not going to simply surrender until they determine whether or not the U.S. military is a paper tiger. By the way, is it?
The most likely outcome would be large casualties on both sites. Assume 10,000+ NATO casualties and 100,000+ Russian ones. A nuclear exchange would be unlikely, but still a high enough probability to dominate any calculation of mean expected deaths.
Even a 1% chance of a nuclear exchange = 1 million deaths.
This is madness. People who want this war should go fight it in.
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Let's expand on the surrender outcome. Putin is already pushing that Ukraine's surrender should include a promise to demilitarize.
3.1: Ukraine reluctantly agrees to this demand. What happens? The way I see it, in ~5 years, Russia invents a narrative the Ukraine broke the agreement, rolls right in and takes over Ukraine who lacks the ability to stop them.
3.2: Ukraine surrenders, but not from such an unfavorable position that they are forced to demilitarize, just forced to give up the territory they've currently lost. What happens? In this scenario Ukraine obviously has to up their military because there's no way they trust Russia not to do it again. Ukraine and Russia both use the time to rebuild their military. I strongly suspect Russia comes back to finish the job, using Ukraine's military buildup as justification.
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Hard to make predictions like that. Some chance Russia eventually grinds through ukraine and wins. Some chance Ukraine expels Russia outside of its pre war border and putin walks it off. Some chance Putin kicks the bucket in the near term naturally or otherwise and then it's hard to predict but seems unlikely a predecessors decides to bother trying to finish the job.
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