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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 27, 2024

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Most of your analysis is based on economic performance and your negative opinion of how he runs his business even though he has been very successful.

Not quite. My analysis is that claims of Musk's greatness are based on his promises of delivering revolutionary new technologies that will change the world, and I'm saying these technologies are never going to be delivered. There will be no self-driving, robo-taxis, semis, bipedal robots doing manual labor for us, revolutionary new batteries, manned missions to Mars or the Moon. All of these things would make him a great man, if he managed to deliver, but he is not going to. This will also have financial consequences, because the stuff he might deliver is not going to be enough to sustain his companies, and as a result they will crash.

Apologies for the financial emphasis, but the last time I was in a conversation about Musk, someone literally made the opposite argument: "who cares the tech he's promising is hype, look at how much his companies are worth!"

Frankly, since this is the culture war thread, why should I really particularly care about the fact that the guy is not the business Messiah? I

I can tell you why I care: because for some reason Musk is the face of letting techies think outside the box and do whatever they want, and if he crashes we are going to see an unending stream of arguments telling us they gave us a chance, and we have to "color inside the lines" now.

I don't think there are that many blind Elon fanboys here.

I literally just got "but have you considered space mining" as a response.

Well, I didn't bother to read their financial statements,

Even if you bothered to, you can't. It's a private company.

What I know is that Space X is highly innovative and even the American goverment rely on them in regards to part of what they are doing. Or with technology like Starlink.

Ok, cool. On the other hand he has a contract to help NASA go back to the Moon, and I'm nearly certain he's going to fail. All the little and big things that the failure resulted from is going to be talked about non-stop, and anyone whoever believed in Elon is going to be subjected to a non-stop shaming campaign. I'm here to tell you you still have time to get off the Musk hype-train.

Your analysis is more like what a random individual who made some research on the issue would provide when trying to suggest whether we should, or shouldn't buy shares on Elon's companies.

No, I don't care about shares. I mean, yeah you probably shouldn't buy, but that's irrelevant. I'm telling you that anyone circling the wagons around Musk will end up in about a similarly humiliating position, as people trying to sell "gender-affirming care" for children.

Anyway, the important thing is the influence of buying twitter, not whether it is profitable for Musk.

I agree, but I'm afraid he's going to be ousted, if his companies come crashing down around him. The relative freedom we are enjoying right now might end up being very brief.

By those metrics Musk should be judged

I think he should be judged by the promises he's making, and whether or not he can deliver on them. Also on whether or not his companies crash.

It is weird, to see this common judgement of Musk based on that when nobody judges Soros or Singer or some of the EA donors massively donating to the Democrats only by those metrics.

He's being judged by the same metrics as Elizabeth Holmes or Trevor Milton, I don't think that's weird.

I think he is good at what he does but not necessarily buy all the hype on any of his particular business. People like Thunderfoot have been predicting Musk to crash and burn for years. I don't believe that will happen in the future like it didn't happen so far.

Not quite. My analysis is that claims of Musk's greatness are based on his promises of delivering revolutionary new technologies that will change the world, and I'm saying these technologies are never going to be delivered. There will be no self-driving, robo-taxis, semis, bipedal robots doing manual labor for us, revolutionary new batteries, manned missions to Mars or the Moon. All of these things would make him a great man, if he managed to deliver, but he is not going to. This will also have financial consequences, because the stuff he might deliver is not going to be enough to sustain his companies, and as a result they will crash.

Probably no bipedal robots doing manual labor for us, and maybe not all of the other list, and in lesser extend. My model of Musk as successful, positive force but overpromiser, seems to fit more with his trajectory so far than the one where he crashes and burns. If the man continues being successful promoting some innovations, he can point those and keep hyping new stuff in the future too. The combo of successes + some bullshit can be sustainable.

He's being judged by the same metrics as Elizabeth Holmes or Trevor Milton, I don't think that's weird.

It isn't really fair to Musk to compare him to Elizabeth Holmes. The man has significant tangible successes.

People like Thunderfoot have been predicting Musk to crash and burn for years. I don't believe that will happen in the future, like it didn't happen so far.

I think it was last year that he actually started, and he set the clock to 5 years. He's been criticizing Musk for a while, but I don't recall him talking about crashing and burning.

It isn't really fair to Musk to compare him to Elizabeth Holmes. The man has significant tangible successes.

The discrepancy between the hype around him, and what he delivered vs what he promised, is enough to justify the comparison, in my opinion.