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Most of your analysis is based on economic performance and your negative opinion of how he runs his business even though he has been very successful. Frankly, since this is the culture war thread, why should I really particularly care about the fact that the guy is not the business Messiah? I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis of Tesla, but I also don't think you are even particularly negative about what he is doing. So Tesla is business as usual. Ok, and? It doesn't have to be the best. I don't think there are that many blind Elon fanboys here.
The interesting issue about Musk is more twitter and his influence. Where he as usually overpromised, underdelivered, compromised with powers that be, but I would say his purchase does count as an overall net positive contribution.
Space X is also a very successful company taking parts of a role that one would expect NASA to take. Do I agree, or disagree about your specific analysis, then? Well, I didn't bother to read their financial statements, so I am not qualified. What I know is that Space X is highly innovative and even the American goverment rely on them in regards to part of what they are doing. Or with technology like Starlink.
Your analysis is more like what a random individual who made some research on the issue would provide when trying to suggest whether we should, or shouldn't buy shares on Elon's companies. I can't really answer adequately whether you are correct, or missing something, but also don't think it is something particularly important. I would probably invest in an index fund instead.
Space X, Tesla are successful endeavors even if I wouldn't tell you to buy Tesla shares. Maybe Tesla is in a bubble, but the market so far has stayed irrational more than doubters expected. Elon has a history of overpromising with whatever he does, but still delivering to an extend. Which is how I see his successful business too. The important thing is the influence of buying twitter, not whether it is profitable for Musk. So to summarize bellow Musk's general contributions:
I would say he made an important positive contribution with SpaceX. Tesla is another success story even if not necessarily in practice better than the biggest manufacturers despite its share price. Most importantly he is bellow what I wanted to see happen with twitter, but still an important net positive contribution over the alternative. I disagree with some of his takes, like supporting legal migration, but he does mostly help counter a left wing monoculture on culture war issues. In addition to allowing dissent, and highlighting some people promoting it, there is a value in high profile people promoting such views themselves. There is also a positive side to being a hypeman, even if he overpromises. He promotes a certain sci fi optimism that is missing from other billionaires, especially on space exploration. But even with his business, he helps push things in the direction of innovation. On most issues he is involved, he has made a positive contribution with all his imperfections.
Not quite. My analysis is that claims of Musk's greatness are based on his promises of delivering revolutionary new technologies that will change the world, and I'm saying these technologies are never going to be delivered. There will be no self-driving, robo-taxis, semis, bipedal robots doing manual labor for us, revolutionary new batteries, manned missions to Mars or the Moon. All of these things would make him a great man, if he managed to deliver, but he is not going to. This will also have financial consequences, because the stuff he might deliver is not going to be enough to sustain his companies, and as a result they will crash.
Apologies for the financial emphasis, but the last time I was in a conversation about Musk, someone literally made the opposite argument: "who cares the tech he's promising is hype, look at how much his companies are worth!"
I can tell you why I care: because for some reason Musk is the face of letting techies think outside the box and do whatever they want, and if he crashes we are going to see an unending stream of arguments telling us they gave us a chance, and we have to "color inside the lines" now.
I literally just got "but have you considered space mining" as a response.
Even if you bothered to, you can't. It's a private company.
Ok, cool. On the other hand he has a contract to help NASA go back to the Moon, and I'm nearly certain he's going to fail. All the little and big things that the failure resulted from is going to be talked about non-stop, and anyone whoever believed in Elon is going to be subjected to a non-stop shaming campaign. I'm here to tell you you still have time to get off the Musk hype-train.
No, I don't care about shares. I mean, yeah you probably shouldn't buy, but that's irrelevant. I'm telling you that anyone circling the wagons around Musk will end up in about a similarly humiliating position, as people trying to sell "gender-affirming care" for children.
I agree, but I'm afraid he's going to be ousted, if his companies come crashing down around him. The relative freedom we are enjoying right now might end up being very brief.
I think he should be judged by the promises he's making, and whether or not he can deliver on them. Also on whether or not his companies crash.
He's being judged by the same metrics as Elizabeth Holmes or Trevor Milton, I don't think that's weird.
I think he is good at what he does but not necessarily buy all the hype on any of his particular business. People like Thunderfoot have been predicting Musk to crash and burn for years. I don't believe that will happen in the future like it didn't happen so far.
Probably no bipedal robots doing manual labor for us, and maybe not all of the other list, and in lesser extend. My model of Musk as successful, positive force but overpromiser, seems to fit more with his trajectory so far than the one where he crashes and burns. If the man continues being successful promoting some innovations, he can point those and keep hyping new stuff in the future too. The combo of successes + some bullshit can be sustainable.
It isn't really fair to Musk to compare him to Elizabeth Holmes. The man has significant tangible successes.
I think it was last year that he actually started, and he set the clock to 5 years. He's been criticizing Musk for a while, but I don't recall him talking about crashing and burning.
The discrepancy between the hype around him, and what he delivered vs what he promised, is enough to justify the comparison, in my opinion.
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