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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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User ID: 68


				
				
				

			

		

	














	


		


			



	

		

			

			

				

					

						

							
						

						

							
							

								
greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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	 Hot Bump Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think people  wrongly assume that because it uses crypto that it is more decentralized . this is  not the case.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The bears may be right eventually, but  the market may have gone up so much in the interim  it will not matter. If the Nasdaq gains 20% year for the next 10 years , that is a 6x return I am leaving on the table waiting for something which may never happen in my lifetime.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
this is such bullshit.  Kalshi did the same thing about Khomeini's death. Because he died instead of vacating, the trades were voided even though his death had the same outcome. Markets "work" because there are rules that everyone agrees on ahead of time. When these rules are changed arbitrarily when money is at stake  then people lose confidence  in markets. Also, there is not even anything  disrespectful about this. A betting market does not imply people do not want him to be found. It's possible to be pessimistic about an outcome in the short-term, while  still hoping for an ultimately positive outcome. They  may as well just put a huge disclaimer on their site "we reserve the right to void any market for any reason we deem fit"


This is the arbitrary moral posturing that makes people hate and distrust "big tech "companies. But this is where money is at stake.
These prediction a markets are huge, with billions in funding. They can afford to  take a stand. Caving to moralistic pressure will mean users losing trust in them.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The laws of physics are much more reliable than economic forecasts or the relation between debt vs. sustainability. Since 2008 there has been no shortage of smart-sounding people who make this type of prediction invoking charts and other data. It sounds persuasive, but  it's of no actionable value. Sitting out of the market in the expectation of a crisis means loss of real wealth as inflation keeps growing at 2-5%/ year, and homes become more unaffordable. Ask people who waited  to buy a home in 2010 fearing things would get worse or in 2020 during Covid.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
seconded. create a blog or post on twitter predictions


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The ability to become wealthier or at least improve one's  financial salutation  is one of the few things anyone has some control over, unlike talent or traits (e.g. HBD). Anyone can invest in the S&P 500 or not waste money on frivolous  purchases.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


If money were distributed on a „deserving“ basis, the correlation between wealth and age would be near-zero,




Wouldn't it be the opposite? People who have worked longer are deserving of more?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The thing is, tech stocks are actually quite cheap.  META's PE ratio is under 19, for example. So it's not as if they have decoupled from fundamentals.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The problem with debt is that it can be meaningless for a long time and then it can matter a lot. Like the famous Lenin quote "There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen".




This can be true , but when people make this prediction every year and nothing happens, it comes off as crying wolf. This is much more applicable for smaller economies which do not have reserve currency status, which cannot inflate their debt as the US can.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				AAQCs Listed by User, August 2018 to March 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
At least I got one lol


brings back memories. 2017-2021 of the old sub


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The US dollar, bond yields, and S&P 500 have held up  well despite oil having gone up so much, suggesting market participants are not concerned.


https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=1M


People again have made this argument of the US losing the petrol dollar and it has not borne  out


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
312	vs 226 was not exactly close even though the popular vote was closer.  With so much  at stake, the political process has become increasingly optimized . The GOP has learned from its mistake of running uncharismatic candidates as seen in the 90s and 2000s. And combined with an increasingly polarized country means closer elections.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


In 2018, He had higher approval ratings, a thriving economy and no war....yet he got knocked down by a blue wave. With the way things are trending, it would take a great fumble for Dems to lose the house. Trump may also lose sufficient seats in Senate, so that 2028 could shape up to be a trifecta win for a Democrat.




The economy is doing well though. GDP strong, unemployment low, CPI lowish. Trumps 's approval rating  is in the same 2pt range now as it was before the raw. There has been no massive loss of support as many predicted 4 weeks ago when it started. Trump has the same  problem Biden had, and the same low approval ratings: he's too polarizing to win over the middle/undecideds. Like with Biden, there is nothing that can change this.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
had trump been reelected in 2020, do you think the 2022 selloff would not have happened? I think it still would have happened.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
so predictable, like free money at this point, hence TACO meme.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


If a war does happen, it carries enormous risks one way or another, even with the extra budget. If a war does not happen, it is money largely wasted in that it could be spent better instead.




How would it be wasted when the alternative is social programs which may have a lower ROI? This presupposes that defunded social programs have an  unusually high ROI, which I don't think it's possible to conclude this.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Not lower the debt at all, public or private; and in fact increase the debt massively. (This one didn't amount to much, there isn't much money to be made here until the US starts to go downhill for real, so it's just positioning for now.)




The US has seemingly defied every prediction of its debt being unsustainable. GDP keeps going up,so the debt is inflated away. Those who keep predicting collapse or other crisis keep being wrong.




I've recently made a bit of a small amount of a fuckton of money based on starting amounts; took my fuck around money and plowed it into you guessed it, oil futures and related industries before it became clear that no, he really is that stupid. I'm up a lot on top of my previous gains from betting (read: instructing my investment guy who tells me which southeast asian restaurants are for real) to bet as if the various Trump economic policies would:




The second trump term has been a huge boon for me investment-wise: correctly shorted Bitcoin, anticipating Trump would not follow-through on the widely anticipated or hoped BTC reserve.


Bought dips during Liberation-day selloffs ('TACO' meme)


Continued to trade various dips and rallies by selling various option spreads anticipating  quick recoveries from selloffs and inflated implied volatility, and rangebound markets


The anticipated post-tariff inflation surge never came to be, so I profited by being invested in tech stocks and the overall economy doing well.


Also made $ on polymarket betting against Trump mentioning Bitcoin (these  are called "mention markets") and against the Bitcoin reserve.


I think it's possible to make $ following whales on Polymarket/Kalshi who possibly have insider info, but haven't looked into it much. I noticed on the 28th, the eve of  the attack on Iran,  someone placed a $20k bet on the contract "strikes in the next 24 hours", an hour before it jumped off. The contract surged from  14 cents to  20 cents almost instant and the stayed at 20 cents for 40 minutes until finally going  to $1.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
hmm on twitter I have noticed very little objection by the right , or  at least by the accounts i track


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Nah, that one a once in a quarter century event. The left learned that BLM, and civil unrest in general, ultimately  was a failure. They didn't get any of the sought policing  reforms  (except perhaps body cams , which have only hurt their cause by showing the arrests and homicides were justified ) and it arguably killed wokeness, too.  Also, the liberal establishment is not going to break the law over White deaths--that is only reserved for blacks.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Everything makes sense viewed through the lens of politics. Both sides show hypocrisy  on this issue. If this were jan 6th we'd see the same people arguing that it was excessive force or overreach. I saw that circulated video and could not see anyone pull a weapon. Looked like a scuffle and someone dead after gunshots. The question is, will this get worse or what are the longer term implications. MN has now sorta become the modern Fort Sumter. The thing is, ICE has the authority to make these arrests and use lethal force if necessary,  and there isn't much that can be done unless Congress steps in, which they likely won't.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Large SUVs are especially dangerous because the high hood means you get knocked  to the ground and then run over instead of thrown on top


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I was doing some research and there were 260k ICE detentions for 2025 alone, and afik this is the only incident where a non-detainee died during the detention process,and more so, and only 20 detainees have died while being detained, for reasons unrelated to excessive force. The overwhelming majority of arrests are uneventful and professional. Even if he was in the wrong, incidents such as this are exceedingly rare, even more so compared to traffic police stops.  Just as police shooting videos occasionally go viral and it's unclear who was in the wrong, this was bound to eventually happen with an ICE arrest, too.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for January 7, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Like cognitive ability, so much  of this is innate. e.g. Ratio  of fast/slow twitch muscles, the strength of tendons, CNS drive, limb length  etc.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
why not just read the SEC website


https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/speecharchive/1998/spch221.htm


it says right here


"Our markets are a success precisely because they enjoy the world's highest level of confidence. Investors put their capital to work – and put their fortunes at risk – because they trust that the marketplace is honest. They know that our securities laws require free, fair, and open transactions."


fairness is a stated reason from the  SEC itself.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I watched the videos at various angles and it doesn't seem   as clear cut ,hard to make heads or tails here