@greyenlightenment's banner p

greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

3 followers   follows 0 users  
joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

Verified Email 

				
User ID: 68


				
				
				

			

		

	














	


		


			



	

		

			

			

				

					

						

							
						

						

							
							

								
greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
User ID: 68


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
							
								Verified Email
							
						
					



		

	

 











			
			

			
			

			




	


		

			
‎

			

				
				

					Hour
					Day
					Week
					Month
					Year
					
				

			


			
‎

			

	
	

	 Hot Bump Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


They can smash up stores of counterfeit products, they can beat the shit out of petty criminals,




It's more like you go to jail and then the beatings happen there. the police don't need to do it and have it go viral online


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah it's true for the individual scale because that is where is is applicable. Taking more confrontational approach may work 9/10 times and the 10th time it goes badly because the other person was having a bad day. This is assuming the police    are not present. it's not like you always have the luxury of time to wait for the cops to come.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


But this article hints at the idea that people are zooming past any of that to full lethality. It's impossible to compile the stats to determine if that's actually the case or not, but the larger point remains; in a society with plunging basic trust, you're going to see levels of interpersonal violence spike. How should state laws governing violence respond to this? Stand Your Ground is something I generally still support, but my mind could be changed if simple Bad Neigbor fights end up with more orphans.




Although I don't predict widespread unrest or civil war, there will be more incidents of random violence and lowered social trust. There is the rise of 'Joey Swoll' phenomenon . Some say he's does good, but he has set a precedent or symptomatic of  a much more confrontational culture, where people take matters in their own hands to rectify some perceived problem, which can sometimes end poorly when you're talking people hot in emotion . This why I have a protocol when encountering an 'IRL' problem: de-escalate and remove-oneself from the situation.  This will usually keep you safe.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Are you shaking your head at my comment or the parent comment? I agree BTC cannot and was not at risk of being regulated-away. I was making a rhetorical point that it was unlikely.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


In its hayday, the crypto currency industry was a total wild west. Straightforward scams, pyramid schemes, whatever FTX was, the NFT craze. The end uses are to hide assets from the government and to conduct transactions which the government does not want you to conduct.




But this was when Biden was in office. And there was hardly any crackdown. FTX only failed under its own negligence.  Of course, there was an increase of KYC/AML, but this is standard  banking practice. It's no surprise crypto is no exception.




So in short, the threat that most crypto businesses in the US would be regulated out of existence seemed very real to me.




I disagree. Coinbase and other exchanges boomed in 2021  again when Biden was in office. The bust was due to the price collapsing in 2022 as part of the broader stagnation and rate hikes by a hawkish fed.


I agree there is more regulatory clarity, and more favorable regulation given the counterfactual under Kamala, hence why Bitcoin went up after trump won.


But the past 6 months has seen a worsening picture as Bitcoin  falls and lag the QQQ , like today, last week, week before, etc . Trump has at best signaled indifference or apathy  to the Bitcoin  reserve...doesn't even talk about it. And his very own Treasury Secretary ruled out purchases, basically a huge disservice to those donors.


If I were a donor I would be mad that Trump has  dropped the ball  .  Maybe some donors got their money worth with only the regulatory aspect and the initial Bitcoin price surge, but there are still three more years, and things do not look good. I still stand by my argument it's premature  saying the donors "won". Yes, in Jan 2025 it seemed that way, but not anymore.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
BTC front-loaded the win, and since Jan 2025 has basically been mediocre to bad.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
That is a far cry or goalpost moving from his original claim of crypto being at risk of being regulated out of existence. The fact bitcoin was trading at $60k in 2021 when Biden was in power, was indicative of confidence in the future of crypto. Coinbase stock was at $300  after its IPO in 2021. 2022 was so bad for crypto due to high correlation with the nasdaq, rising interest rates, and stagflation , not regulatory concerns.


Bitcoin has basically been stuck in the $90-110k range since Jan 2025 despite the nasdaq ripping higher practically  everyday and Trump in office.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
But was crypto at much risk of being regulated out of existence? Bitcoin had gotten as high as $70k when Biden was in office and the 2024 election uncertain. In fact, bitcoin was as high as $60k   in early 2021, when  Trump was not even seen as a contender due to jan 6th, and it was assumed Biden would be reelected.  In 2021, NFTs and other stuff thrived as well, only to collapse in   2022, not because  of  regulation, but the inherent unsustainability of paying $300k for a picture. The original bitcoin ETFs were approved under Biden no less. Those were highly controversial. Meanwhile ,  approval for the XRP ETFs under trump was delayed repeatedly https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia:8424cad94094b:0-ripple-s-xrp-etf-misses-another-deadline-are-they-facing-rejection/.


Of course, the counterfactual would be worse under kamala, but how much is that worth when you don't get any of the other stuff, e.g. a reserve funded by purchases? This was a main selling point; in fact, donors rolled out the red carpet for Trump in 2024 on that promise https://www.wired.com/story/donald-trumps-plan-to-hoard-billions-in-bitcoin-has-economists-stumped/ So he signed  an executive order for a stockpile, which is not a reserve, and it has sat unfunded as $ goes to Ai and chips, which donated nothing,  and there is no evidence to suggest any additional progress will be made. This sounds like a disappointment to me.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Social commentators often deplore how people are isolated or choosing to be alone, but declining social skills, not smartphones, may be to blame. Conversations are two-way, so if some percentage of the general population is severely deficient in this regard, the probability of a bad conversation converges to near 100% after only a handful of exchanges, so it's not worth socializing at all, as the downside is not worth it. Videos frequently go viral of aggressive, confrontational behavior. People are just meaner in general and I don't think it can be explained by confirmation bias of viral videos, technology,  or autism.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
My response to Scott's post “Tech PACs Are Closing In On The Almonds”.


Scott Alexander argues that Marc Andreessen’s ‘crypto PAC’ was a success and validates his thesis that donors should donate more. But the evidence of success is lacking, and it's way premature to say he and other crypto donors succeeded.


In fact, something interesting and unexpected happened instead, which runs counter to scott's thesis and premature victory lap:  those who donated the least, nothing, or originally opposed Trump and his supporters, got the most and the biggest embrace by Trump. They got actual taxpayer-funded bailouts and other initiatives, but crypto donors got little to nothing. No taxpayer-funded crypto purchases.


So what to make of this? I would say that this again shows why donors do not donate more. There is no assurance of success. Crypto donors wanted Trump to make crypto a priority, and at best it has been pushed to the backburner compared to AI, chips, quantum and other stuff.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 13, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Has there ever been a Middle East deal what wasn't 'cautiously optimistic'. Things can pop off at any moment. There was a long stretch of peace following the death of Yasser Arafat, so who knows..


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 6, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


As with Musk, the remaining question is did he turn weird, or was he always weird?




From https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/06/09/curtis-yarvin-profile




Although Yarvin tried to be discreet, he mentioned that Thiel has a bit of a “weirdo edge” and described Andreessen, the venture capitalist, as someone who, “apart from the bizarre and possibly even nonhuman shape of his head, would seem much more normal than Peter.




When Moldbug calls you weird, that is saying something,


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 15, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
"life without parole" (LWOP)


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 15, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Why are these people paid so much for such mediocre jokes and commentary. Random people on twitter have better insights for free. Yeah, I get the economic argument (people tune in to see him deliver the jokes, not a random person), but the occupation of  'late night TV host'  has long outlived its usefulness .CBS balking at paying $40 million a year for Colbert is an indication of this.




If such a big figure can fall, who will be next?




These people are surprisingly  expendable. Many  celebs were axed during Trump's first term.  We're not talking Steve Jobs, Elon Musk, or Sam Altman here , where  a trillion dollar company hinges on the directive of a single person.  Right wing cancel culture, like the doge cuts, is much more methodical , thorough  and organized than haphazard like how the left does it .  They , the left, forgot the mass cancellations during the 2001-2006 about Iraq, 9/11 and so on, like Bill Maher's 9/11 comment that led to his cancellation. They got too cocky. It's like, "we're cancelling everyone to make up for the past 10 years"


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 15, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
A lot of people cheered on his death or supported the killer, but the tradeoff of LWOP or death penalty to exact political revenge, is a poor one. Hence why the incidence of these situations is very low, and most people do not have a agency to pull it off even if they wanted to.




So let's say .03% willing to take extreme lengths in support of political violence, .3% immediately visibly excited by political violence. As a percentage that's low. It's a really, low, comforting percentage. Except when you see it happen in real life. Then it's not so comforting.




That is why statistics is useful. otherwise there is no way to quantify the risk. Seeing someone win the lottery does not make it more likely you will win. Even if there is a correlation between  killings instead of being purely statistically  independent events, the odds are still tiny.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 15, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
but the majority don't stay that way as adults though; they go on to have careers and join the fold of liberal democracy


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 15, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


These two ideologies, western liberal democracy, which the conservatives are still, maybe stupidly, trying to work inside of, and some bastard form of revolutionary marxism, are not two sides fighting over territory. There's no compromise where we meet in the middle. It's winner take all - either we remain a western liberal democracy, or we don't.




Marxism had already infused itself into the Western world by the early 20th century.  Anarchism dates even further back. America has long had strains of socialism, communism, anarchim, Marxism in certain respects of academia and labor unions, yet this hasn't stopped 'free market capitalism' and 'liberal democracy' from thriving. The compromise is the far-left remains marginalized despite having some popularity online and campus, as it has been the past 60-100+ years in the US.


A similar pattern is seen around the world. Every country which has elections will have at least one fringe socialist or Marxist party, which never secures many votes or seats but exists nevertheless.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 8, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


and also wildly gruesome.




This is the key factor.  Had he died in a car accident ,it would obviously be different. But OTOH, dancing on the graves is something of an American tradition and maybe even intrinsic to humanity, probably going back to the Revolutionary War. Or when Lincoln was shot, many confederates had the same feeling. https://www.vox.com/2015/4/15/8414239/abraham-lincoln-death




Confederate lawyer Rodney Dorman called the killer “a great public benefactor” and felt relieved at Lincoln’s assassination. (In his diary, he spelled Lincoln’s name “Lincon” to emphasize the “con” he felt Lincoln was.)




				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 8, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
In the days following Charlie Kirk's murder, has seen a wave of employers being contacted regarding off-color remarks made by employees on social media about his passing. The debate is,  does this constitute cancel culture, but by the right instead of the typical left? Some have argued that it is not the same thing, due to the disparaging comments being immediate, vs old comments dredged up in an attempt to cancel someone. There is a big difference between someone desecrating Charlie Kirk in an overt manner right after his passing, compared to  a  social media post made 10+ years ago against living targets that could be deemed as racist only under the most uncharitable light.


My take is, contacting an employer with the intent of getting someone fired  for something not work-related or fired in the public interest as a 'concerned citizen', by definition, is cancel culture. Sure, one can argue that this is a different degree of cancelation, but it's the same principle. Someone posting a vile comment on his social media celebrating someone's death doesn’t necessarily affect his ability to do his job, like making sandwiches or whatever. Sure, if said individual confessed on social media to spitting in customers' sandwiches or making disparaging remarks about customers, go ahead and get his ass fired to protect the customers if no one else. But this is not like that. Consumers and other employees are not negatively affected by an employee holding a grudge against a dead podcaster.


To turn the tables, imagine if George Soros died and many of those same people wrote "good riddance" on their social media accounts, should this be grounds for cancelation? By the above logic, yes if you want to be morally consistent.


relevant tweet https://x.com/politicalmath/status/1967066826590028174


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 8, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Economically and in other aspects, there is a lot going well the the US, but I think we will start seeing more assassination attempts. These are different from typical riots or school shootings. Even though the Trump shooter failed, society was still disrupted. Assignations exploit a weak point in society and carry symbolic value  with efficacy that other forms of political  unrest cannot match.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 8, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


most conservatives that ostensibly want to tear down the liberal establishment, actually don't want to give up their liberal freedom and personal autonomy.




How far back turning the dial of time does returning to tradition mean?  It's like a tradeoff between higher relative status for White males and lower standards of living, vs less status and the fruits of modernity. I think for the former category, there was more freedom compared to today. But also,  I think people have a conception or  idealization of a past that didn't really exist, when in reality things were pretty disorderly back then. If you read the biographies of artists and writers who grew up in the mid  to early 20th century, when America was assumed to be more conservative and religious, a theme is how they were constantly breaking the law and given second chances. it's like these ppl were in and out of detention  and skipping school and smoking and drinking in their early teens, and no one cared that much.  Nowadays, things are much more strict.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
he's like a less intelligent  and more liberal and sanitized  version of Matt Ygalsias


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The problem with crypto is you run into the same problem of having to explain the source of the funds during the fiat conversion process. It adds additional complexity without much benefit, for example,  if someone uses stolen crypto to pay for a service.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It always annoys me was 'esteemed' physicists venture into woo. That is a sign  they ran out of ideas or are unserious about research and should retire to let the next generation of competent researchers in. This guy way overrated relative to his contributions.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I remember in 2019 when  Google/Youtube used  similar pretext for demonization, blaming advertisers who didn't wish to be associated with violent or hateful content . At the time it was a big deal , as many channels depended on ad Google ad revenue.  That problem suddenly went away, and now I see Google youtube ads on some of the most heinous videos imaginable  (execution videos, or a 9/11 jumper landing on  a light pole .it didn't end well for him or the pole). The advertisers didn't give a shit and still don't care if their ads are placed next to violent content. Gore aficionados buy stuff, too.  Google invented  some lame excuse or pretext to demonetize.