sarker
ketman hetman
No bio...
User ID: 636
sarker
ketman hetman
1d ago
Orbital mechanics permit a degree of certainty that's rare in most other human affairs.
We can pick another metaphor. If you keep OD'ing on fent on Market Street and people keep narcaning you from the brink of oblivion and telling you that you're gonna die if you do this again, but you haven't died yet and you've done this tons of times should you ignore them?
sarker
ketman hetman
1d ago
First of all, as I've explained many times before (all the way back to the subreddit), fighting off a foreign occupation is an entirely different thing than a domestic insurgency. Guerrilla warfare can sometimes work to accomplish the former, never the latter.
Never? I mean. I can think of some examples: the Cuban revolution, the Chinese revolution, the Nicaraguan revolution, the Rwandan civil war... Frequently guerillas become something more like a regular army as they develop strength but that doesn't take away from the fact that they were able to develop into regular armies starting from guerillas.
sarker
ketman hetman
1d ago
The laws of physics are much more reliable than economic forecasts or the relation between debt vs. sustainability.
Agreed.
Sitting out of the market in the expectation of a crisis means loss of real wealth as inflation keeps growing at 2-5%/ year, and homes become more unaffordable.
I am long the market, so yes, agreed. But presumably there are ways that the national debt can become a problem without the S&P500 crashing.
Nevertheless, looking at the countries that had a higher debt to GDP ratio than the US right now, it's not a great collection - Japan, post-WWII UK, Sudan, Lebanon, Greece. Maybe it's not the debt that made these places suck, but it seems reasonable to be concerned about where this road leads.
sarker
ketman hetman
1d ago
This can be true , but when people make this prediction every year and nothing happens, it comes off as crying wolf.
If there's a clear indicator that's getting worse all the time but disaster hasn't struck yet, it's hard to see this as the same as crying wolf. You'll recall that in the fable it was, in fact, not clear that there was even was a wolf. We can all agree that debt to GDP is increasing.
Is it crying wolf to be concerned about a small moon on course to collide with the earth? It gets closer every day but nothing has happened yet!
sarker
ketman hetman
2d ago
It’s stilly our highest legislative body is controlled by who can argue the best. Just simplify it and appoint people who will be loyal and pass the laws you want.
Legislators are elected, not appointed.
sarker
ketman hetman
2d ago
I don't have any advice but I fucking hate people like this, having lived next door to a cunt who also liked to idle his car fifteen feet away from my bedroom window for twenty minutes on weekend mornings so that he doesn't damage his precious 2020 camaro. Fortunately I made enough money that I was able to upgrade to a mildly richer and more exclusive neighborhood with fewer antisocial personalities.
I guess that's my advice - make more money and leave. That's the only way to deal with noise ordinance violations in the USA in my experience.
sarker
ketman hetman
5d ago
because the companies running the models gave them answers?
It's not an unreasonable criticism in the abstract, but a few minutes of reading shows that it just doesn't apply in this case.
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The higher score was published by Symbolica AI using Opus 4.6. So it couldn't be that Opus was retrained with the answers.
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"This uses the same harness we previously published" so it couldn't be that they simply prompt the model with the answers.
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The harness is published so you can see for yourself.
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Benchmarks do not publish their entire problem set, so in general it's impossible for labs to simply "give the models the answers" to the problems that aren't published.
sarker
ketman hetman
6d ago
sarker
ketman hetman
7d ago
People I knew who experienced western supermarkets with truly virgin eyes (coming e.g. from the USSR) seemed to not be alienated either.
I guess if you really drill your kids in bell curves they start to wonder why they'd believe their dad (midwit gentile European) instead of their Jewish friends (+1SD Ashkenazim). Then the whole edifice falls down.
Be careful what you wish for!
sarker
ketman hetman
7d ago
Raising non-woke kids is probably easy. The question is how do you turn them into non-woke adults through the teenage years of thinking mom and dad are stupid. Bryan Caplan seems to have managed it.
sarker
ketman hetman
9d ago
f37ac702-4bc1-4f26-a6e7-cde2080eaf75
300, apparently dragged down by my literary knowledge at the 78th percentile. 58/60 for technical knowledge though. I guess I really am a codecel.
Is 420 a slang term for marijuana?
Yes. I mean, no. I mean, yes. I mean...
sarker
ketman hetman
9d ago
Okay, you got me, especially since Shakes wrote the grandparent comment.
sarker
ketman hetman
10d ago
Okay. But "we got the Iranians to attack our allies with missiles" is not much of an achievement, or at least, it doesn't indicate on its own that the war is going particularly well.
You neglected eleven days ago to specify what kind of situation would make you say that the five week special operation is going poorly. Care to update that or do you feel that the war is basically already a success since our allies got bombed?
sarker
ketman hetman
11d ago
Schools need to educate every student in English. If there's math for kids who aren't able to do math, seems to stand to reason that there should be English for kids who aren't able to speak English. The fiscal argument seems nonsensical - kids get English lessons anyway.
Finally, if they want to assimilate, they will learn English whether or not it's in schools.
Making it harder to assimilate may make the situation develop not necessary in your favor.
If you're not doing that yourself, then you're not fit for this country in the first place. It's not the government's job to pay to assimilate every foreigner who wants to be here.
Kids generally don't get a choice about where they grow up and indoctrinating them into American cultural norms (like speaking English) seems pretty good.
sarker
ketman hetman
12d ago
Everybody sends remittances.
This is just false. Forget about the guy who moved from Mexico. If you think the American born kids of every immigrant (who you don't consider Americans either) are sending remittances, I have to wonder how many such kids you've met, because it doesn't match basically any of the second generation immigrants I've met.
mandatory ESL
What do you think ESL is and why is it bad to have it in schools? It seems pretty obvious to me that ESL classes improve assimilation over not having them.
sarker
ketman hetman
12d ago
I'm totally on board with Teddy here, but (and?) he's obviously staking out a position entirely different from yours. Consider a man who moves here from Mexico, acquires American citizenship, renounces his Mexican citizenship, speaks perfect (and exclusive) English, and flies an American flag in front of his house. Teddy would have no reservations about calling such a man an American, but you would never do so. Your positions are not at all similar.
sarker
ketman hetman
12d ago
What did Teddy say that agrees with your, uh, limited conception of who is an American?
sarker
ketman hetman
12d ago
Targeted killing of enemy combatants is not terrorism. Simple as.
sarker
ketman hetman
12d ago
Everyone was cheering when Israel infiltrated a consumer electronics supply chain to plant hidden explosives inside batteries. That is actually pushing the boundaries of normalized warfare.
Did anyone not in Hezbollah get a pager with explosives in it?
sarker
ketman hetman
12d ago
I never said foreign born. I said foreigner.
You did say foreign born:
That's because they don't want to be sent back where they came from. It's all motivated reasoning, all the way down, but the truth is just like last time the foreign born population crested 15%, there's a backlash coming, and this is laying groundwork to salvage some of what will be lost.
This makes the carbon tax revenue positive.
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