sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
Suddenly I cannot remember the color of your eyes
Or the things we said as we stood together for the last time
User ID: 636
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
18hr ago
I'm pretty sure it's over for your wrist size at 23. Maybe there's some Chinese research chemical I'm not aware of, but I'm skeptical.
The good news is that you can still play sports and meet women as a wristlet. The bad (?) news is that if you aren't already performing at a high level you're unlikely to be held back by your wrists in sport.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
18hr ago
Sometimes the partial toleration of native criminal gangs can reduce the influence of foreign criminal gangs, like the way probiotic bacteria outcompete dangerous bacteria for nutrients.
Indeed, there's actually an even bigger native gang in Japan than the Yakuza that runs a protection racket over the entire home islands.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
19hr ago
The MOU is implemented when it's signed. Don't confuse what happens when the "deal" is reached vs MoU signing.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
20hr ago
The money and sanctions and aid are contingent on a round credibly abandoning their nuclear aims.
Incorrect.
The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use, the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU.
Funds unfrozen and exports permitted right off the bat.
This is the Trump Doctrine. You establish overwhelming force over an adversary, strike a quick blow, then negotiate.
Hmm. What quick blow did he strike against North Korea?
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
20hr ago
It doesn't have to be a shaming campaign, an in person or on twitter convo of "ya this is weird please keep it separate from EA stuff" would be sufficient.
And how do you know that such an in person convo has not taken place?
It's only not separate from EA stuff in the sense that it's conceivable that an EA will attend and it's conceivable that he will mention EA at some point. That's it. That's the standard that's being applied here - the good EAs must restrict everyone else who considers themselves to be an EA from attending any possibly sus event. Needless to say, this standard isn't applied for just about any other ideology attending vibecamp (do Catholics need to worry about this?).
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
21hr ago
I'm glad that they pinkie promise no bomb. That's good.
However, there's no firm commitments here about enforcing this in the future. We just get a promise of "agree to discuss the issue of enrichment."
Also, my list of desired outcomes was necessary but not sufficient. For example, if Iran credibly committed to no bomb ever but in return each American had to pay them $1000 a year in perpetuity, this would be overall bad. I assume your list was the same way.
You responded to my comment with:
[The war would be a failure if] Iran tolls the Strait of Hormuz
This is still on the table!
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
21hr ago
It's not clear to me what spending $300B on our own industries looks like. Unless we're going to loan them some dentists and barbers, it's probably going to look like Iran getting a whole bunch of capital at our expense. If we build e.g. a port for Iran, maybe this has some short run benefits for America, but Iran still gets a free port. That's one thing if Iran is our new best friend, but I'm not sure if that's the case.
Maybe we'd be better off spending $300B digging holes and filling them in again in the Mojave.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
21hr ago
So Iran gets $300B, no commitments to remove any mines before 30 days, and no commitments to allow toll-free passage after 60 days.
I guess $300B is cheap for foreign adventures these days. Maybe we'll be able to saddle some "allies" with part of it. I'm not sure if paying reparations was part of the plan, but perhaps some plan trusters can help me out.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
1d ago
Working for a non-reform religious Jew means that your labor will likely go toward the lobbying efforts of the Jewish community.
Is the guy in question a non-reform religious Jew? If so, did Franco know that at the time?
Mounting a shaming campaign against any event that may have EAs in attendance (vibecamp is not an EA meetup even though some attendees are EAs) isn't going to save any chicken QALYs.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
1d ago
Scott is a good writer but is not particularly charismatic and refuses to give interviews (except the one I guess).
I don't know that Piper is focused on AI safety in particular rather than covering EA more broadly. I also see her as more of a journalist than a thinker.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
1d ago
At some point you're better off finding the most charismatic follower and installing him as the figurehead of the movement while you retire to be the eminence grise if you actually want to convince people. Aren't rationalists supposed to win?
EA and rat sphere seems filled with people that want to be weird. Which makes the "effective" part seem like a lie. Lots of charity involves convincing normies to give you money, and they basically suck at that. They are claiming all the weird people though, so maybe that is them just serving a market niche that no one else was serving well. They don't seem to have the awareness that this is what they are doing.
There's lots of perfectly ordinary EAs who care about malaria nets and not putting pigs and chickens into small cages (e.g. Lewis Bollard). It's just that they aren't the EAs that are posting their sex lives on Twitter.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
1d ago
On top of that, opus 4.8 is seriously reviled by half of the llm addict community.
Isn't this mostly the half that use Opus for ERP?
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
1d ago
Due to enhanced productivity at the top, there is a lesser need for graduate students, postdocs and younger faculty, and the ones that do remain in the system receive inferior training because of heavy reliance on AI to pass coursework and generate their own novel research questions.
Why should they be worse at this? There's parts of the process that AI optimizes, and people don't need to be good at those things anymore. That just makes the remaining human input more valuable. Word processing and computer graphics also increased productivity. I bet most grad students couldn't chart a plot by hand these days.
we begin to lose the ability to comprehend what much of it means or how much of it can be applied.
Can't you just ask the AI? If there's no practical applications, well, I'm told that that goes for a lot of human research today, so seems like a win if we can do that with fewer people.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
1d ago
Your economic analysis of what would happen to the money is correct but I know enough parents to know many are genuinely trying to do their best for their children rather than living out some pompous caricature of the PMC, and are desperately afraid their children will fall into an unhappy state.
What's the conflict here? IME the PMC caricature is basically on the money. It probably doesn't even go far enough. People out there literally believe that it's abusive to have kids share a bedroom, and this has nothing to do with ensuring that your kids escape the permanent underclass. It's just pure competition.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
2d ago
Paul Fussell's Class
Was not about how much money you made but about your taste and proclivities. We can argue about Warren's taste, if you like, but your original comment was about net worth.
If you consider doctors the help, you are upper class
It's quite clear that even the lowliest senator considers doctors to be the help.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
2d ago
In fact the matter was not settled before nuclear testing proceeded.
Such grisly conjectures took on a different tone in ensuing decades, as nuclear weaponry progressively grew into a concrete endeavour and, eventually, a tragic reality. It became deeply distasteful to joke about how Earth's immolation may please "sun-bathers on the beaches of Mars". Yet diverse intellectuals including Carl Jung continued referring to the theory that novae are distant atomic tests gone awry. The journal Science even published a piece on the question, in June 1946, on the eve of the US's post-war tests in Bikini Atoll. It stated that not only "non-scientists" are "disturbed over the prospect" of planetary ignition.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
2d ago
The only people who think that the upper class starts at 99% are people between 90%-99% who don't want to face the reality that they aren't middle class. "No officer, you don't understand, I'm only at 98.5%ile."
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
2d ago
$12M is close to top 1% in wealth. $3M is 94th percentile. This is not the upper middle class.
sarker
hantavirus landfill tour guide
2d ago
I'm far from an expert but would be interested to see what you came up with.
Surely his mother can't be concerned that those women gratifying his sexuality affects how he classifies his mother.
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