CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
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User ID: 333
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
1d ago
Not sure if it's your thing, but you could purchase a high quality Grandmother Clock within that price range. My family has some of these as heirlooms and they're pretty cool.
This time, a German architecture prize was rescinded over the recipient signing a letter condemning Israel.
I wish someone could come up with a zinger viral label for an award, title or qualification that is contingent on holding the correct ideological opinions. Then all of the ones that are could be labelled and de-legitimised in the eyes of the larger public. Everything from the Oscars, to Nobel Prizes, to Hugo Awards. Even the College of Psychologists of Ontario (CPO) that sent Jordan Peterson to the Commissars for 're-education'.
Once these things are properly deemed farcical, it might be the first step in a course correction. Let people striving for these things know in black and white what their opinions must be in order to receive and keep them. Then maybe you'll get college students/neophytes going 'nah, I don't want to have to be a communist/environmentalist/progressive/ultra-conservative so I'll just pick a different career' so they don't have to deal with it. With the wellspring of aspirants in cut off, the awards risk becoming irrelevant and might feel pressure to change their ways.
Better yet they actually would become irrelevant and fade into obscurity.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
5d ago
I think some non-trivial portion of his starting picks won't remain in their positions until the end of his term. I'd say 25%. Either because Trump removes them or they remove themselves.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
5d ago
MGTOW had two categories. Men who had genuinely been burned hard by women (eg divorce rape, abuse etc) and younger incel types that were being more performative. The first group were genuinely happy(er) being alone, in the same way I've seen middle aged women be happier being alone after getting out of a bad marriage. The second group is a bit like this US based 4B crowd.
I'm betting the US 4B movement has a big overlap with things like: being physically unattractive, being overweight, claiming 'Feminist' as an identity, watching Korean Dramas, listening to K-Pop, being young, being college educated, being a Harris supporter (duh) and being 'very online'. I suspect that this is just post-election histrionics and will quickly be forgotten as bad orange man doesn't start goose-stepping his way to push a federal anti-abortion law.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
6d ago
Fellow 3070 enjoyer here. I feel your pain. I was looking at the $2k top end graphics cards on the market and crying into my cornflakes today.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
6d ago
It certainly reminds me of far right influencers self deporting from YouTube to Bitchute. Except for the far righties it was jumping before they were pushed. For the far lefties, its just seeking out an echo chamber because (in my opinion) many of their views can't survive in an open marketplace of ideas.
The election was a wakeup call of the importance of new media in shaping political discourse for the masses. This migration seems to be 'just build your own banking system' in effect. We'll see if it works out or if it ends up awkward like Trump being the only one posting on Truth Social.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
6d ago
And if they aren't, you're probably doing it wrong.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
6d ago
I remember the same feeling walking through the alleys and courtyards of Venice. Couldn't imagine what it would be like to step outside your door every day and have someone speak indecipherable gibberish to you while waving a camera.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
6d ago
Talking to people without the intention of banging them is a completely normal and healthy behaviour. Even for lotharios who wish to cultivate their attractiveness, talking to unattractive women purely to socialise is something to be encouraged. As is talking to men, old ladies, children etc etc.
Talking to women who are recalcitrant, while still giving some experience, is in the end a waste of time. Worse, it can burn a guy out from enjoying time around women which is the worst thing you could ever do as a single man. Just don't. Eject. Go find someone with a warm attitude.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
7d ago
The best response if you come across this is to smile warmly and exit the conversation.
Eventually you will find girls that don't try to test if you are willing to humiliate yourself for the chance to spend time with them. They're more common than you'd think.
I used to try all sorts of 'flip the script' nonsense during my PUA days, but now I find I just can't stomach spending time around women with attitudes. Luckily I found that the sooner you jettison these people from your life, the better you feel.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
8d ago
That aside, what's her reason for opposing gay marriage? I know Christians and Muslims have a scriptural disgust for it. I'd like to know where young Tulsi's strong opposition to it comes from.
She worked for her father's anti-gay organisation when she was younger.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
8d ago
Yeah, the 'Russian Asset' came direct from Hillary during the 2019 DNC primaries.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
8d ago
By comparison, I still remember when Trump's nickname for Rubio was "Little Marco."
Yeah, that one's going to stick around to the end of his career.
I found some commentary on /r/moderatepolitics where she's criticised for being pro-Russian (so of course a Russian agent) and pro-Assad (because apparently she visited Syria and had an opportunistic meeting with Assad; after which she was a 'skeptic' of Assad using chemical weapons on his own people). There was some speculation on reddit that the senate wouldn't confirm her DNI appointment for the above reasons. She apparently also backed conversion therapy when she was younger. I haven't fact checked or done a deep dive on any of this. I'm just providing a hook for people to start their own research.
I'm actually a big fan of Tulsi after seeing her several times on Rogan (Transcript). She is against the MIC, the deep state (unelected bureaucrats) and forever wars. I was disappointed that she didn't get SecDef and worried that she would be sidelined, but my confidence was restored with the DNI selection. She's unironically what I would like to see as a female president.
I don't know how 2028 primaries will turn out, but I'd expect Rubio, Vance and Gabbard to compete. Vance and Gabbard seemed to get along very well on the campaign trail (Vance being an (ex)marine and Gabbard being Reserve Army).
Edit: Adding some links. Atlantic article doing some character assassination here.
Edit Edit: Glenn Greenwald pushing back against Tulsi attacks here.
I'm sorry for your loss.
My Grandfather passed very recently. He lived a long life into his 90's. He just caught a chest infection one day and deteriorated quite quickly in hospital. He eventually just asked the doctors to stop treating him and switch to palliative care. After 3 days he passed away. He wasn't responsive once they switched to palliative care, being in something of a delirium.
My father did not take his passing well. This is partially because it's his last parent going and also because he himself is in hospital for chronic health conditions and couldn't attend the funeral. It was a bit of an existential crisis in the sense that myself and my siblings have realised that our father likely doesn't have many years left in him either.
For myself, I'm glad Grandfather passed relatively quickly without a long drawn out death from something like dementia. He had his faculties up to the end (with just some physical frailties) and was still driving himself around. He lived a good, long life and left behind a successful and loving family. I'd be lucky to follow his example.
I'm reluctant to post this last part because I don't expect anyone to take this seriously. I'm agnostic, but I sensed when my Grandfather passed. I was in a hyperfocused state doomscrolling at the time. I'm normally completely shut off from most of my emotions when I'm doing this, but I sensed a presence so I stopped what I was doing. I made a prayer for my Grandfather to commend him to God. I felt a warmth like a loving hug and knew he was saying goodbye and that he was fine. Then it was gone. Minutes later I got a text that Grandfather had passed 10 minutes ago. So that was a thing.
Like yourself there's a good chance I'll be deleting this one later on.
Edit: I'll keep this one as long as you do mate.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
11d ago
You're not alone. :(
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
12d ago
I'm sorry this happened. You did nothing wrong.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
14d ago
That I could wake up in the morning with enough states undeclared (by two of the three organizations used to resolve Polymarket) to plausibly swing the result is horrific optics.
Completely agree with you. This was my greatest fear, should not be possible at all. With more resources and organisation it should not be possible. I wish at the very least that the FEC sent 'flying squads' to the swing states to act as a QRF for any of these bullshit anomalies. As soon as any of this shit pops up on a radar, that counting office gets 20 Feds dropping in to stand over them. There needs to be consequences for even looking like you're trying something funky.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
14d ago
a) Trump will try to nominate his horse for SCOTUS (not literally, but nominating a poorly qualified candidate who is personally tied to him the way Bush did with Harriet Miers)?
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
15d ago
Don't be ashamed if the therapy knocks you around for the day. People often underrate the emotional impact of opening up boxes like that.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
15d ago
Do you think some Indian or East Asian techbros are racist against whites, or its just a general progressive-tech anti-White bias? I'm curious about this because I used to have a baseline that these groups who had emigrated to the west were generally positive about Whites, but recent commentary in Indian twitterspace has made me doubt that.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
15d ago
I really really despise people who try to exaggerate data by starting an axis at anything other than zero.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
15d ago
My wife specifically referred to "The loudest people" in her groups making themselves feel more important and representative than they actually are.
I doubt the harridan element would screech so loud if they were certain the consensus they were trying to build already existed. This concept extends out to Twitter space.
It's Better to be Lucky than Good
I’m not a practiced Bayesian, and to be honest this is as much as a victory lap as it is a reflection on my priors. Oh lets, be honest. This is mostly a victory lap.
My major election posts in the lead up:
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I noted Joe Rogan had solidified his status as a Kingmaker after the Trump interview. This seems to have been born out by Trump’s quick acknowledgment of Rogan’s endorsement and the large shout out by Dana White in Trump’s Victory speech. Even before the interview, I noted Trump going on Rogan was a Big Deal. I realized I was right about the impact when NBC of all things made multiple references to the ‘Joe Rogan Army’ during their election coverage when noting the young male turnout.
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After going on Rogan, the McDonalds photo op, and Kamala’s failure to resonate in her campaign, I made a Trump win prediction at 55-60% certainty 10 days before the election.
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I quickly noted the Selzer poll was likely bullshit.
Things I got wrong:
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I underestimated the impact of the Garbage fiasco. I thought it was just more random flotsam in the election and would probably be quickly forgotten. To be fair I didn’t know Trump’s team would use meme magic to force the MSM to cover Trump speaking from a garbage truck. The nail in the coffin was when he honked the horn (rare footage)
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I didn’t post about this, but I did upvote Blackpill posts about Democrat election fraud. I really did expect 3am mystery trucks, election officials putting up paper over the windows and keeping monitors outside, gas/water leaks and restarting the count after monitors had gone home etc etc at about 65-70% certainty. That didn’t eventuate thankfully.
Takeaways:
I’m not an American citizen/resident so I’m not immersed in the election. I am ‘very online’. I rate my election prediction performance as ‘not bad’ for this one, but I put that down to my information diet curation. My major aggregator was actually here at the Motte (with some other centrist non-MSM sources) and I would then go down rabbit holes myself for further research. I leveraged the screening and arguments of this forum to better inform myself, so I consider myself pretty lucky to be here.
One last point is that I’m upgrading my view of betting markets to consider them a credible source. They won’t be my only source, but I’m now taking them seriously. Polymarket got this one right.
As much as I want to see Smolett get his, I have to agree. Outcomes like this are essentially punishing the prosecutors for not following the rules. Fair enough too.
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