zeke5123a
10hr ago
The Vox piece doesn’t surprise me. In the recent Pretti killing, it came out that Pretti previously got into a violent interaction with ICE where ICE acted professionally (if understated). Those interactions probably occurred hundreds of times daily. The media wants you to focus on the numerator of bad cop interactions while ignoring the denominator (the thousands of interactions with bad actors that LEO deals with excellently).
Is LEO misconduct a problem? Sure. But it pales in comparison to suspect misconduct. Vox wants you to focus on the former but not the latter by controlling the numerator and denominator.
zeke5123a
2d ago
And my 8 year will be a giant in 8 years. I think the whole debate is whether LLMs are slowing down on improvements (ie can you really simply extrapolate 2 more years)
zeke5123a
3d ago
That seems like a certain way to make sure your positions aren’t very high IQ for long.
zeke5123a
4d ago
I read the article. It’s somewhat interesting but the interesting question is what did prediction markets say. Most SCOTUS opinions are easily predicted (and frequently written about).
I’d expect an LLM to do better there compared to areas with less items written. In the example I was referencing, if an LLM could step back and try to understand the regulatory scheme, it would have understood its answer was counter to the scheme. Once you know that, you have to really study to make sure you aren’t missing something. But not sure it’s capable of that meta check.
zeke5123a
4d ago
Pretty much everything. Literally yesterday there was a question asked by a generalist that he ran through an AI. The response was the opposite of the right answer as there was a specific reg on point.
I also find that AI is bad at understanding the meta analysis behind cases (ie doesn’t really understand the policy and therefore has a hard time generalizing).
It is a better google but still wrong—sometimes in clear ways like the ref on point and sometimes in less obvious ways where it doesn’t understand nuance.
zeke5123a
4d ago
This seems pedantic. You know what Blackman means. High stakes important cases where opinions are common. Most lawyers don’t practice in that space but Blackman is talking about cases that will go to circuit cases frequently and are of import.
zeke5123a
4d ago
It’s pretty obvious that Blackman is referencing the kind of cases that customarily require an opinion being drafted; not the basic motion practice for many attorneys.
zeke5123a
4d ago
Please don’t run things through AI and accept its output. Lawyer here and AI gets things wrong all the time.
zeke5123a
5d ago
Lemon is alleged to have helped plan it.
Imagine Lemon and others talked about robbing a bank. He goes along and interviews the bank employees whilst the bank robbery is committed.
Seems clearly his “journalist” defense is invalid.
zeke5123a
5d ago
That’s consistent with Elon never going. Doesn’t seem like they set a date etc
zeke5123a
6d ago
I think the video shows something else. The video is showing what ICE are going through minute by minute and hour by hour. The two shots are the numerator of bad encounters with cops. The denominator are probably countless interactions like the one in the new video.
Problem is when you have the countless interactions like the video, a small number of them will go sideways.
It is also interesting to me that we focus so much on this particular numerator and not on the inverse (ie thugs attacking ICE). There was in fact an armed ambush of ICE last year. Did that make national headlines? Did people talk about it for weeks?
zeke5123a
6d ago
Composition matters. The 20% was a lot smaller amongst older dems; a lot higher amongst younger dems. Lizard man constant breaks down when you disaggregate the polling.
zeke5123a
6d ago
Literally Dems shouted down a house proposal to honor Kirk (was merely symbolic). Ilhan Omar didn’t condemn — she in so may words said he had it coming.
It just isn’t true what you are saying. A lot of Dem politicians said something to the effective of “Kirk shouldn’t have have been shot BUT he was a bad dude.” That isn’t really condemning it (the but matters more) but gives enough for a post like yours allowing you to claim the dems decried it.
zeke5123a
6d ago
Well we have polls. We have law (eg first amendment). It isn’t just like my opinion man.
zeke5123a
7d ago
You described both actions as child like. I’m saying as a society we’ve decided one is child like (ie kicking cars and spitting on people) and the other (political speech) is not child like. So you have a category error.
zeke5123a
7d ago
But discourse about government isn’t child-like behavior. Go around kicking SUVs is child like behavior.
You seem to be making a category error.
zeke5123a
7d ago
I know the implication is you dated non white women but it would be funny if you just hadn’t dated anyone until you turned 35
zeke5123a
7d ago
I totally agree with what you wrote. It was very boo outgroup and seemed untethered from our discussion.
I think many of your points can be rebutted. They are in essence treating the progressive option as neutral.
Take for example the politicization of certain administrative roles. Did you miss the first Trump term where those ‘apolitical’ roles were used to #resist. Was that not political? The departments were not apolitical to start with; Trump II is merely saying if they are going to be political might as well be our guys.
Or take ICE. It is deporting more people in Texas and Florida. The big difference is those states are working with the feds so you don’t need a lot of federal people there to enforce deportation. Not so in Minnesota. Is that fascist? Was Little Rock and the 101st fascist?
Re the weaponization of the justice department did we not just live through the Dems trying the leading opposition candidate on novel bogus charges? That is but one example. You also had under Obama the targeting of conservative NGOs.
Maybe you say this is just the “you too” fallacy. But I think the reality is that Trump recognizes he (and Republicans more broadly) being knifes to shootouts. Trump decided to finally bring a gun. Maybe that increases the odds of something spiraling out of control and leading to right fascism. But if he didn’t it would clearly lead to left fascism.
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