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Pigeon

coo coo

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joined 2022 September 04 22:48:43 UTC

				

User ID: 237

Pigeon

coo coo

1 follower   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 04 22:48:43 UTC

					

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User ID: 237

The hard part, though, is that if that is true, if you know for certain that they are eating their seed corn, then my friend you have tremendous alpha and should put all your money betting on Microsoft going belly up.

Surely even if this is true, predicting when this will happen is still incredibly difficult?

Many of China's once-ghost cities and trains-to-nowhere are a good example.

This is, at best, a mixed example.

Oh, that looks like obvious malicious clown garbage. He has a broken leg. Why is he in the hospital for over a month with a broken leg? Unless that is understating his injuty to a hilarious extent, a broken leg is a couple hours of outpatient care and then getting released.

What? I admit to being possibly out of date regarding orthopaedics best practice, but my impression is that most tibial +/- fibular fractures require operative management. Isolated fibular shaft fractures maybe? Even for conservative management it's going to be a cast and crutches and no weight-bearing on that leg for weeks, with at least a couple clinic visits. Certainly not to the extent that you can be so blasé as to say "couple hours of outpatient care then getting released"!

euthanasia trucks

Why is this something that "no one seriously thinks happened"?

I mean, this happens to this day.

Is there a source for this quote somewhere I can find?

math and geometry ditto (honestly you shouldn't bother remembering theorems - you should be able to quickly prove them on the spot when needed)

I think it would be quite mean to ask a high school student to figure out/invent how to derive the Taylor series of a function ab initio.

This is often not the case and is counterintuitive for many.

I recall when I was a student, an ICU consultant asked us to guess whether most people who go to ICU die from the initial resuscitation or escalation of intensive treatment; the time during of intensive treatment; or the time when we try to step down patients from intensive care; he was impressed at the few of us who guessed the last. Turns out we’re quite good at maintaining signs of life with technology, even as we are helpless to fix an otherwise nonviable body — at least if you’re stable enough to get into ICU and didn’t have your chest caved in by a bus.

This probably makes more sense once you try to guess about how often ICU doctors have to have difficult family meetings with patients’ families about withdrawing life support, versus patients dying while on life support.

I don’t know how to interpret chasing off famine relief with gunboats… it far exceeds any of the evidence for the intentionality of the Maoist famines.

Not sure about this one as IIRC starving people were killed when trying to access grain in warehouses during the Great Leap Forward, and one of the reasons why the famine was so horrific was because Mao and co. continued to export food for political gain and refused foreign aid for at least a year or two.

It should obvious to anyone that the US in 2025 is not China ca. 1930.

China circa 1946, more like. The Nanjing decade was relatively stable for most Chinese people; the KMT lost an enormous amount of credibility from the general population during WW2. Mao has explicitly referenced this when speaking to Japanese officials.

TENS is mostly commonly associated with skin (it's in the name, after all) and maybe the lungs but in cases with intestinal involvement the intestinal epithelium sloughs off as well. So if you're willing to stretch the claim...

It's also not an infection but a hypersensitivity reaction (potentially from an infection), but losing the epidermis does pretty heavily predispose to (further) infection.

Maybe it makes your skin fall off and your guts come out while leaving you in crippling agony (I'm like 50% certain there's an actual disease like this, but it's probably something that happens to premature infants. That, or acute radiation poisoning I suppose).

TENS might be close enough?

*Reading it is making me even more contemptuous of Luddites than I was before. If, as Ted Kacsynski would have us believe, the industrial revolution was a disaster for the human race, why stop at 1750?

Didn’t kaczynsci think that we should return to pre-civilisation?

Bad dragons?

I think I'd be more wary about calling Confucianism a religion or religion-like without bounding what is meant by religion and Confucianism respectively.

Speaking of language, the Chinese term for Confucianism is 儒教 (rújiào) - the former character means 'scholar', and the latter means 'teaching', 'school', or sometimes 'religion'. Confucianism is the teaching of the scholars. I bring this up because it's similar to the names of schools that are uncontestedly considered 'religions' in the West.

It is true that Confucius has a temple, and he was himself strict about the preservation of the rites of Zhou and other traditional religious institutions, and many aspects of Confucian thought has seeped into Chinese folk religion; the Classic of Changes literally originates from treatises on divination...

But when I read most works in the Confucian school I get a different sense -- that it is "religious" to the extent that all political systems and philosophies in classical antiquity are religious, and it is less overtly religious than many of its contemporaries!

樊遲問知。子曰。務民之義、敬鬼神而遠之、可謂知矣。

Analects 6:22. Fan Chi asked what constituted wisdom. The Master said, "To give one's self earnestly to the duties due to men, and, while respecting spiritual beings, to keep aloof from them, may be called wisdom."

子不語怪,力,亂,神。

Analects 7:21. The subjects on which the Master did not talk, were: extraordinary things, feats of strength, disorder, and spiritual beings.

On the other hand, many of the Socratic dialogues reference gods and the divine much more directly than the Confucian classics do, but I think we would still consider Euthyphro more of a philosophical work than a religious one, right?

Regardless the ancients would have drawn less stark a divide than we would regarding the secular and the religious, if they did so at all.

And Confucianism is also -- I think more commonly -- referred to as 儒家 rujia (家 jia, lit. family/home, in this case meaning "school of thought"). Other contemporary examples of this usage include 法家 fajia (the Legalists) and 墨家 mojia (the Mohists), part of the Hundred Schools of Thought which we identify nowadays as primarily political or philosophical schools rather than religious ones, even if these philosophical schools were bound at the time to various superstitions and religions as well.


This is not to obfuscate the mystical parts of Confucianism, of course. The Classics referencing rites implies a certain belief in the validity of those rites, and we have further developments (e.g. 理學 lixue, often translated as neo-Confucianism) that have a more explicit focus on the metaphysical. But I would still put it as that Confucian thought is a largely humanistic school of moral philosophy that was nevertheless grounded in a superstitious and religious society, and thus utilises the assumptions and language of that society.

Have you seen pictures of any large Chinese city in 1990 and compared it to the same city in 2020?

I’m guessing this is a reference to the early Ming treasure fleets, in which case this is inaccurate as the treasure fleets were not exploring as much as they were re-establishing relations, and the ships were built for such.

Or this could be a reference to a brief period of theoretical Chinese naval superiority in technology between the Song and the Ming, before the Ming went all sea-ban and lost a lot of knowledge about building seaworthy ships.

You're right in geological terms, which I definitely missed in the original comment, but I think it's more circumstantial than "high demand for coal". Imperial China, for example, had similar issues with deforestation as Britain did, and had widespread adoption of coal both as a daily fuel and as a metallurgical resource in response to this especially in the Song dynasty; Marco Polo notes the predominance of coal as a fuel, for a European source that's a couple hundred years down the line.

I'm not completely sure why Britain had the need to artificially drain its waterlogged mines while China didn't, despite widespread use of coal. I do recall that the Chinese generally didn't employ shaft mining until quite late, that shaft mines would just be abandoned rather than drained even in the late Qing, and that some Chinese mines had relatively efficient natural drainage that made them less flood-prone; perhaps the geological details of the mines themselves, and the mining techniques necessary for them, were significant factors. I'm also of the impression that viable mines in Britain were able to be operated very close to waterways in a way that e.g. China's (or perhaps other European countries, as well) didn't, which may have lead to different financial bottlenecks.

Speculatively, I also wouldn't be surprised if coal and firewood consumption fell significantly, at least at a per capita level, after the Yuan (14th century or so), which would at least partially explain why there was lower demand for further improvements in mining.

men claim to be straight, but constantly joke about fucking femboys, twinks, and trannies

What really?

The worst thing was that I was on vacation at the time and couldn't just get someone to prescribe some pred for me on the sly!

No, I agree with this; but I think that some European states in the early modern period — France under Louis XIV? — had enough pure state capacity to develop the ability to support free trade, and it still took a little while for ideas about free trade to get expressed. Conversely in China, early Ming China most likely had the state capacity to support free trade, but pointedly decided not to. (Chinese state capacity withered away dramatically over the Ming-Qing period anyway; I am happy to be corrected about the European record.)

I suppose what I mean is that a modern state is necessary but insufficient.

Care to elaborate? I haven’t really read them.

Amongst my close friends in undergrad, there used to be a guy who had a ~150 IQ (he was the only member of the group who had it measured "properly" by a professional - he had a psychologist friend and he agreed to be one of the test subjects for something), and he was noticeably duller than the rest of us in [hard STEM subject we all studied] - this was evidenced objectively in exam results (and he worked to try get good results) I'm not sure if he is just one of those unfortunate people on the vertex of the functionality/IQ ellipse, or if it really was just a "culture" issue (maybe he was just overloaded with extra-curriculars, he had test-anxiety, etc - normally I'd discount those explanations as cope - but then... 150 IQ!)

It could possibly be a test with a different SD score, though I'm not sure why that would be the case since I think? most Western tests are calibrated to be SD15 or SD16. I recall hearing about a K-pop star with an IQ of 148 and then finding out [that it was 148 on a different scale (with an SD of 24), as was the standard in Korean school testing at the time (?)

150 would be gifted but not that exceptional in that case.

Oh yes, this is true! (I recall alluding to this difference in a reply I made regarding DeepSeek being uncannily good at classical Chinese poetry -- it's able to identify words that rhymed back in the day, but not in standard Mandarin.) Even in Middle Chinese these often wouldn't be exactly the same, so it would really mostly be a guide rather than an absolute. Nonetheless, they often sound similar enough that it's significantly less effort than if it were completely random, in the same way that Middle English sote is different but kind of similar to sweet (and not at all to mistletoe) in sound.

The way simplification really broke things is by removing many phonetic guides completely, like 廣 to 广. I happen to be more of a fan of the simplification done in 新字体 shinjitai, but even it kind of breaks things sometimes -- 廣 is now 広, for example, which has a misleading phonetic component. (Of course, it matters less in the Japanese case, as 広い is hiroi, and many compound words use ひろ hiro native pronunciation rather than こう kou borrowed (from China) pronunciation.)

I think this take is grossly correct, with the addition that the Chinese language — being relatively poor in range of sounds, as well as being monosyllabic for characters — would find the transition to a sound-based script more difficult than imagined. I’d also hazard a guess that logographs add an additional layer of difficulty in learning, but isn’t actually that much more onerous to read once learned — see the studies that show ability to recognise scrambled or deformed English words as long as certain signposts of a word are present like the initial and last character, which suggests a logograph-like recognition of words even in people only literate in an alphabetic language.

Add to that that most Chinese characters have a phonetic component, borrowing sounds from more common characters along with a helpful radical… (incidentally iirc simplification has actually fucked some of this up)

It's effective enough that in premodern East Asia, people from the Sinosphere who did not speak the same language could often write conversations instead.