The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
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User ID: 174
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
7hr ago
Newsom is the obvious choice; it's possible the Democrats can keep their wokies under control long enough to elect him. There's also Shapiro, though with the anti-Israel (and anti-Semitic) turn in both parties, I find him unlikely. And AOC, who is probably more electable than Kamala (though not by much).
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
7hr ago
Iran has not "closed" the strait in normal terms. They have apparently not mined it, despite some claims that they would. Thet can still get their own oil through. What they're doing is taking shots, with drones, at other ships which transit it.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
20hr ago
Vance just has to defeat whoever the Democrats put up. Is the second rise of Kamala that threatening?
I'd be surprised if the Democrats were that dumb. Not extremely surprised, but surprised.
But in general I agree. It's 2026. Election's in 2028. We've got a war to get through, plus midterms. Lots of things can happen, it's way too soon to count Vance out.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
It appears the Trump administration has completely surrendered the propaganda war. All the MSM including the Wall Street Journal is assuming the administration doesn't know what they're doing and the war is hopelessly lost, and that everyone at the DoD is murdering war criminals who killed an ever-increasing number of schoolchildren and nothing else while ignoring the Straits of Hormuz because no one even thought of it. Maybe they just figure there's no way to win that one so they're not bothering. Only way out for them is a decisive victory in the real war, and honestly, I can't see one -- there's no Iranian organization able to take advantage and revolt, so without troops on the ground, there's no way to take down the regime or even force them to the table for real.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
Yes, but also Trump has been saying a lot of random stuff, which is just Trump being Trump, and "CNN MSNBC the BBS et al" have been pretending there's no way to sort that out.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2d ago
Since you would take an admission of a mistake as a weapon to attack the administration with, this is unreasonable coming from you.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2d ago
The problem is that this argument is a soldier, and nothing more. The entire point of bringing up the girl's school deaths and pinning them on the US is to say "TRUMP BAD FOR ATTACKING IRAN". It stops there. Both sides know this, so one side tries as hard as it can to pin the deaths on the US (including claiming as proof footage of a missile attack on the base next door) and reports uncritically the ever-increasing death count (including a surprising number of boys, for girl's school) claimed by Iran. The other side denies regardless of the evidence, and reports fishy stories about Iranian missile misfires. If the attack was definitely shown to be an Iranian accident or an intercepted US attack, the first side would switch to instead blaming the US because the incident wouldn't have happened had the US not attacked. If it was definitely shown that it was a mistargeted US attack, the second side would blame Iran for making the war necessary in the first place.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2d ago
I'm saying doom isn't a positive vision, and I'm a goddamned expert on visions of doom.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2d ago
It’s going to be an Iraq level mess and nothing good will come of it.
Pick one. An Iraq-level mess means a regime change to something considerably better than the current regime, only at much higher cost and taking much longer than expected.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2d ago
The most likely reason Senator Murphy can report all this without disclosing classified info is he's just making it up.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2d ago
Cyprus?
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2d ago
Iran can keep the Hormuz closed indefinitely
So far, Iran has shown no capability to hit any ship which isn't broadcasting a location for them to punch into their drones. And they can do that anywhere in the Gulf (e.g. near Basra). For now. The fact that the Straits are straits doesn't seem to matter.
build low-cost shaheds (essentially model planes that can be put together in an outhouse)
That's a damn big outhouse, complete with engine and explosive manufacturing facility. I think it'll get blown up.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2d ago
Al "The Day After Tommorrow" Gore had a more positive view of the nation's future than Bush? I.... don't think so.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2d ago
Who cares if it was an errant US, Israeli or Iranian strike?
Nobody. If the US hit it through intelligence error, the US is responsible because the standard for intelligence is perfection. If the US hit it through targeting error, the US is responsible because the standard for targeting is perfection. If the US hit it due to a inaccuracy in the missile's guidance, the US is responsible because the standard for guidance is perfection. If the US hit it because Iran attempted to intercept the missile, the US is responsible because the standard for not being intercepted is perfection. If Iran hit it because it fired a missile that the US jammed, the US is responsible because the US jammed it. And if Iran hit it and the missile simply malfunctioned, the US is responsible because the US started this war and we could have simply not done so.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2d ago
This is about a prince's relation with his subjects, not enemy princes or their subjects.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2d ago
Them and what army?
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3d ago
No, never; I'm afraid that phrase is around in the civilian world as well.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3d ago
Now that makes no sense at all. Ukraine doesn't need American drone interceptors for Shaheds. Even if they did, forcing the other side to spend one interceptor for one drone in Iran is no better for Russia than the same happening in Ukraine.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3d ago
Please explain why it benefits Putin to supply Iran with infinite Shaheds to keep oil from flowing through the Strait.
They wouldn't even do that. Shaheds from the mountains would be shot down before they reached the strait.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3d ago
The chance of Putin supplying some hardened remnant of the IRGC in the mountains of Iran with Shaheds is zero. Why would he? What would they have to offer him, compared with using the drones against Ukraine? They couldn't even pay for them.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3d ago
Meanwhile, here in the real world, not only did the US win the Iraq War, it successfully managed the nation-building part as well. Iraq was not Afghanistan.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3d ago
The problem with the navy escorting a tanker is that it'll be a far better target than a tanker going through alone with AIS turned off. (The Mayuree Naree, the empty bulk carrier that was hit, went in fat dumb and happy with the transponder on)
Probably the navy ought to just send in RPVs displaying tanker transponders until all the Iranian launch sites are wrecked.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3d ago
Surely it prevents export from Saudi Arabia’s western ports?
Only if you hit enough of it.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3d ago
Iran has done some of that recently: what did the Azeris do to them? At best they are either flailing around --- it'd be hilarious if Israel, Ukraine, or US intelligence caused them to inadvertently strike Chechnya --- or trying to appeal to the negative sum game of a more regional war.
Iran evidently warned their neighbors that in the event of a US attack they'd be hit (as part of a strategy to convince them to pressure the US into leaving them alone, though this may have backfired all by itself), and they also had a doctrine of devolving control to local commanders if the leadership was hit. So I suspect what happened is the leadership was hit, the local commanders followed their last orders (which may have been a bluff that was never intended to be followed, but there was no one to countermand them) and attacked everyone. Or maybe the Iranian leaders actually would have thought attacking everyone was a good strategy; we'll never know because they are dead. I guess the moral is if you have a deadman switch, don't make it stupid.
No, the Jask port does not have sufficient capacity. They are still also loading at Kharg Island.
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