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Notes -
I'd tend to agree with this.
I have a general theory of conspiracy theories. It does not universally hold (e.g. it does a bad job with Atlantis or UFO conspiracies), but it often seems to work. That theory is that conspiracy theories usually work by bundling something obviously true with something obviously false. Once you muddy the ground between the obviously true and obviously false thing, the conspiracy theory is mostly achieved. All you have to do is convince someone of the obviously true thing in order to sneak in the obviously false part. Better yet, opponents of the conspiracy theory are just as likely to fall for your framing, and tie themselves in knots trying to refute the obviously true part because they think they have to go through it to reach the false part.
Some examples:
Deep state: It is obviously true that government business is often obscure or opaque, and that politicians, lobbyists, etc., influence government business for their own private interests. Likewise it is obviously true that government bureaucracy has its own culture and to an extent its own interests, and those influence decision-making. It is obviously false that there's an organised secretive organisation embedded in the government bureaucracy that's plotting to subvert democracy and implement their own nefarious and evil agenda.
Great Replacement: It is obviously true that the proportion of white people in the populations of various Western countries is decreasing, due to a combination of declining native birthrates and immigration from non-European countries. It is also obviously true that this immigration is supported by various national and international authorities. It is obviously false that there's an organised and secretive internationalist or United Nations or Jewish or Illuminati conspiracy to destroy the white race.
Zionism: It is obviously true that Jews are a relatively well-off group in the United States, that they're thus relatively politically influential, and that Jews tend to strongly support Israel. It is also obviously true that there's an Israel or Zionist lobby that influences the US government in pro-Israel ways. It is obviously false that a hidden and malicious conspiracy of global Jewry is puppeting the United States for its own agenda, which may be found in the Protocols of the Elders of Zion.
And so on. Typically the way the conspiracist frames it is that all you have to do is notice the obviously true thing and this is evidence of the obviously false part - and this is only supported by the way that their opponents tend to downplay or discourage discussion of the obviously true thing, lest it lead to the false thing. At the worst part of the argument, the obviously true thing by itself is treated as a dog-whistle for the obviously false thing and thus forbidden - which only helps the conspiracist overall.
I don't think it fails on UFO theories. The true thing is "we can't identify everything we see in the sky", i.e. "literal unidentified flying objects are reasonably common".
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If you remove "secretive" and replace "embedded in" with "which is", and also replace "plotting" with "acts as" - why it is obviously false? Especially if we assume their own agenda is to grab as much power as they possibly could and never let it go and never allow any restriction and reduction of their size and their influence? It's not obvious to me at all that this is false. It certainly looks consistent with the empirical data.
Well, yes, if you change the statement so that it's asserting something else entirely, it is no longer obviously false. That's straightforward enough.
But it's not "something else entirely". The only change is that a) it's not secretive and b) there's no explicit plotting as designated activity, otherwise the claim is the same, the result is the same. And I would claim most "conspiracy theorists" would agree with me that this is an acceptable description of what they claim is true about the deep state. If you ask any of them "if we assume all you say about deep state is true, except for the secret plotting part - there's actually no any documents called "plot" and all the actions are taken in the open - would you say it confirms what you thought or overthrows it completely?" - I think nearly every one would say "confirms".
if you take
then for me I do not need to look far, and noone is denying that Russia, North Korea or Iran exists (feel free to replace with USA, Israel, Ukraine and France or other applicable set like Sudan, Brazil and Ethiopia).
The interesting part of conspiracy theories is positing extra actors which are relevant, organised and secret.
If you are looking for "my country leadership is acting against me" or "world is not union of happy cooperating countries" you get far less disputed vision of reality. If you go for "jewry of world in secret tries to harm me" or "all capitalists secretly cooperate in perfect union" then I am expecting a really good evidence, not youtube video or some tired screed like The Protocols of the Elders of Zion.
To assume that groups like "all Jews" or "all capitalists" have a lot of common interests and their intersection is substantial and brings them to concerted action is quite contrary to observed evidence. Jews are notoriously disagreeing on pretty much everything - thus the saying "two Jews - three opinions", including such things as if Israel existing is a good thing (there are Jews that think it isn't, as we unfortunately just recently confirmed) and a myriad other lesser issues. Same for capitalists - judging by the donations and public expressions, there is a capitalist behind pretty much every ideological stance (including, mind-bogglingly, one that declares capitalists should be shot and their wealth should be taken away). In this situation believing in such concerted action requires going against a lot of evidence and experience.
However, if we take the government bureaucracy, evidence suggests they frequently act in concert, these actions are frequently not in the interest of those who they nominally serve, and these actions are frequently aimed at increasing their power and almost never aimed at the reverse. In this situation, believing that they are "deep state" requires dismissing no evidence and embracing all of it. There's the difference.
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