Vance’s mistake during the "fact check" back-and-forth with the moderators was calling it a "fact check." Normies hear "fact-check" and think, "Well, it's got to be true—it’s literally got ‘fact’ in the name!" That’s where Trump would have come up with something clever to call it instead.
I predicted before the debate that Vance would come off better because the left-leaning media had set the bar too low, similar to how right-leaning media would treat Biden before his appearances until the final one. If you’ve been paying attention, it's always been clear that in terms of raw intelligence, Vance is far ahead of the other candidates. I think Vance did great—much better than Walz—but Walz did well enough that he didn’t cause any major issues, so I don’t think the needle moves much. While I believe I could have performed better than Trump in his last debate, I would be obliterated by Vance and probably lose to Walz.
As was clear with Trump last time, fiscal conservatism is dead.
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1mo ago
They fought a small town that doesn't have any weapons and still haven't really been able to win in a year.
Are we talking about the Gaza Strip?
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1mo ago
Not starting a war is the whole point of standing behind proxies. If you want to start a war you just... start a war.
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1mo ago
I have no idea if people know what they're talking about but over in the credibledefense thread I'm seeing Shahab-3, Kheibar Shekan, and Fattah-1 ballistic missiles being mentioned.
A big question is how many casualties. So far civilian numbers seems very light. I don't think it's clear that many of these ballistic missiles hit "the center of Tel Aviv". Right now I'm getting the impression that - like last time - it's air bases and desert getting hit. The impressive videos could perhaps cool things down as it makes Iran not look completely impotent, and they can use that in their propaganda while Israel took little to know civilian casualties and almost certainly moved anything really pricey (e.g. F-35s) out of the way.
This indicates to me that Hezbollah is heavily attritted, or we'd see a much bigger response from them. Instead the response had to come from Iran.
You should summon Beej67 for real answers. Just some thoughts from a nobody: common sense, knowing your risk tolerance, and a satellite image can get you pretty far. Don’t be within 20 vertical feet of anywhere a meandering river has ever been. Avoid being at the end of a draw, and in a non-meandering river valley, look for areas where the river has been before, then double or triple the vertical distance. Flow data usually goes back quite a while, but visually, you should be able to ask yourself, "How did that rock end up like that?" You should have to work to get to water, if it's easy to get to you're at flood risk. There's also an element of you don't have to outrun the bear just another person. If there's a path for water to go flood some massive other area get hire then that.
Maybe I get to cheat in my area because I live in an area in the path of ARkStorm so worst case is pretty observable.
I’ve found maps useful for identifying hidden flood dangers, like streams that have been fully encased for a significant distance. The flood maps will show the risk. The heuristic I use is: "If this disaster did occur, would its consequences be so severe that I’d be affected indirectly no matter what?" Maximizing mitigation of the Yellowstone caldera erupting probably isn’t worth much of your time, since the economic effects would be catastrophic, and you'd likely need to become a prepper if you truly want to mitigate that.
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1mo ago
Right now she's just really in to jumping around connecting all the uses of the words in Hebrew and Greek.
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1mo ago
What are The Motte's top study Bibles? I know not most Mottizens thing, but curious. My wife started teaching a Sunday school and was impressed by my NASB. Well we've got that covered so I figured something else. I'm seeing the RSV Study bible coming highly recommended. I remember the Ryrie being popular in the late 1990's.
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2mo ago
Doesn’t the whole concept of externalized costs undermine this claim?
Capitalism isn't utopian, and most capitalists are willing to let the state address its inadequacies. You acknowledge that this isn't solely a failure of capitalism, but isn't the externalization of costs even greater in bureaucracy or democracy as a whole?
I'm betting that's why they were set off today. The best theory I've heard is that Israel planned to activate the pagers during a major campaign against Hezbollah, but Hezbollah started catching on (or the campaign is imminent), so Israel activated the pagers before word got out. Now Hezbollah is probably going through everything to check for bombs, so they set off the walkie-talkies as well.
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2mo ago
We see it in every state with strict laws. Physicians refuse to perform the operation and declare that the mother's life is in jeopardy because of these laws, even though it directly contradicts the text of the law. Then, journalists run with it. I think physicians are using patients as pawns to further their own political beliefs. Plus, if you're a real believer, wouldn't you counteract unethical laws?
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2mo ago
Very impressive. The question that comes to mind is the value of blowing all of these up and mostly maiming many Hezbollah agents versus having full, unfettered access to their communications. This makes me think that Israel likely has full interception capabilities, no matter how Hezbollah communicates electronically.
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2mo ago
What are some hypothetical situations during that cut that make it legitimate to run across the street and try to beat someone up?
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2mo ago
You're archive link only got part of the article. Here's one with the whole thing: https://archive.ph/fjWPe
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2mo ago
They still destroyed him with the 43 million dollar judgement that a judge then ruled was nondischargeable.
I think I’m similar for the same reasons. If I ever leaned toward libertarianism, it was only for a very brief period. I always found the idea of "Everything the government does is the worst, and everything would be better if it ceased to exist" to be cringeworthy. For example, yes, I’m willing to tolerate school shootings so I can have easier access to guns. I was told this perspective would change when I had a kid… but nope. Legalization of drugs? The opioid epidemic has had zero effect on my stance, and people getting lazier on marijuana doesn’t change my opinion either.
I don’t argue for straight anarcho-capitalism much anymore; instead, I try to engage within the mindset of the person I’m speaking with. For instance, I’m against foreign intervention across the board, but if someone who voted for George W. Bush criticizes U.S. support for Ukraine, I’ll argue that it’s probably the best deal in foreign policy in decades.
I had a girlfriend who worked for a resettlement agency and they did have to deal with cases of goats being killed and butchered at apartment complexes. I could buy killing a few geese/ducks but I highly doubt cats. If the populations of duck/geese are similar to parks in my area there no way they depopulated a park. The picture going around of a black man with a goose appears to be from Columbus could very possibly be fresh road kill. I've seen white people dressing a road kill deer on the side of the road, 100% legal in my state.
How about the trans school shooter's manifesto that can't be released because of copyright?
One of my online dates.
Her: "Are you really 6 foot 2?"
Me: "Well not exactly, I'm 6 feet 1 and 3/4"
Her: "I could tell, you shouldn't lie about your height"
Me: -_-
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2mo ago
Gender was just a synonym for sex because people wanted to avoid saying sex because of the fucking connotation. We were then gaslit as if they were different.
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3mo ago
I feel like they were pretty happy with Kamala as well underestimating what a full court media press can do for a candidate when the bar is set for a living dead man.
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3mo ago
You've read a lot of books and I read a comment on Saltburn... The gist is random redditor claims that it isn't unheard of for middle class kids to pretend to be working class because it carries more favor with the elite kids.
Been said but for being from the old internet you should have thicker skin. You'd probably shrug off being called a fagot but this sends you over the edge? I'm guessing it's the insecurity knowing that you kind of fucked up and it's going to follow you forever. The left has big fancy institutions to gaslight us. They gaslight us on [A-Z+-]+, CRT, Biden's mental facilities and many other things. You pulled one over on a mid-whit, but how correct is libs of tiktok? Less then 50% or is it much much more?
My friend who bets on these things bought as many shares as he could (I guess it's not that much) on Biden stepping down by end of day.
Edit: Karine Jean-Pierre is doing a press conference right now. Say's there's been no discussion of suspension of campaign or resignation which I don't believe but seems odd to say if Biden is going to stop down today. Just don't have a press conference.
Not that it changes anything but this was CBS.
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