peanutgallery
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User ID: 3338
peanutgallery
4d ago
His big brag in 2016 was ultimately that he had herded towards 50/50 harder than anybody else.
Seriously.. Of course he is going to claim credit but he shouldn’t get credit for having his model hedge more than others. But apparently I don’t understand statistics because I think he shouldn’t get credit for hedging more.
It did incentivize him to hedge more and more until we get to this ridiculous point where he tries to take credit for a 50/50 prediction.
The problem is you can't evaluate how well the model did based on just the probability of winning, except for the correct or not question, and he was not correct in 2016. Maybe whatever he is doing in this post is good, but it sure didn't translate to the final prediction, so he doesn't get credit for that either.
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