I do hope more opinions come in, I am South African but can't promise good insight.
My opinions for what it is worth. I think the rise of MK vs ANC is being framed as a new party doing well, whereas I would rather frame it as the ANC splitting between Xhosa and Zulu. I feel many don't want to acknowledge what that represents going forward. There is history there that some over here would prefer to ignore.
I have received a few memes joking about the Eastern Cape still supporting ANC strongly, making fun of them for being stupid etc. But a hypothetical Xhosa voter, looking at the situation, who would you vote for? I would strongly argue that the EFF's rhetoric, claiming to me be marxist and supporting pan-Africanism, has made them the party of affluent black (and leftist white) university students. I would strongly argue that SA mirrors the US in so many ways. I can just look at how well the EFF has done in university suburbs in Cape Town, which are not cheap. In the rural Eastern Cape, these messages don't land. What resonates to these Xhosa voters, is that the Zulus are trying to take over. They already had an uprising a few years ago, they had some in the 50s etc. The rise of MK is driven by the feeling of Zulus being persecuted, particularly in the recent court case for Zuma (a fascinating parallel with the US). Lawfare, it sows grievance. And the reactive force to that is fear.
The ANC has fallen below 50% dramatically, and will have to choose who to govern with. The coalition options are limited, and I think it will have to be the DA for it to make any sense. White South Africans that remain want to make this work
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I do hope more opinions come in, I am South African but can't promise good insight.
My opinions for what it is worth. I think the rise of MK vs ANC is being framed as a new party doing well, whereas I would rather frame it as the ANC splitting between Xhosa and Zulu. I feel many don't want to acknowledge what that represents going forward. There is history there that some over here would prefer to ignore.
I have received a few memes joking about the Eastern Cape still supporting ANC strongly, making fun of them for being stupid etc. But a hypothetical Xhosa voter, looking at the situation, who would you vote for? I would strongly argue that the EFF's rhetoric, claiming to me be marxist and supporting pan-Africanism, has made them the party of affluent black (and leftist white) university students. I would strongly argue that SA mirrors the US in so many ways. I can just look at how well the EFF has done in university suburbs in Cape Town, which are not cheap. In the rural Eastern Cape, these messages don't land. What resonates to these Xhosa voters, is that the Zulus are trying to take over. They already had an uprising a few years ago, they had some in the 50s etc. The rise of MK is driven by the feeling of Zulus being persecuted, particularly in the recent court case for Zuma (a fascinating parallel with the US). Lawfare, it sows grievance. And the reactive force to that is fear.
The ANC has fallen below 50% dramatically, and will have to choose who to govern with. The coalition options are limited, and I think it will have to be the DA for it to make any sense. White South Africans that remain want to make this work
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