mildly_benis
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User ID: 1305
would European politicians be willing or able to accept it
It is, unfortunately, much easier to argue the opposite, as you do. And past the atlanticist status quo and soft power, there are tools like natgas supply blackmail, devastating sanctions liftable when negotiations with the Authoritarians are broken off, outright assassinations.
On the other side, I can't really think of anything other than business community revolt, establishment self preservation attempt after economic hardship translates to electoral sweep for the "far" right, uncharacteristically well executed Chinese influence campaign, some significant US blunder or distraction.
Great men of history urgently needed.
mildly_benis
4d ago
I'm somewhat surprised they wouldn't wait for Trump to actually show he can do something, instead of reacting on his babble.
In any case, I very much hope this heavy handed approach backfires in the case of Europe. As things stand, helping to maintain US hegemony looks like certain pain, dubious gain. It's perverse how little the US is willing to offer, given their advantages and prosperity. Ideally the Chinese would come up with a straightforwardly superior counteroffer that gives Europe time to restructure while on the side-lines of the broader conflict.
mildly_benis
13d ago
US is prosperous, prosperity is desirable, hardly a reason to pat yourself on the back. If you blur the distinction between the country and the empire, of course the enmity will be diluted.
mildly_benis
13d ago
DO NOT GET INVOLVED!
US obviously is involved, has been for more than a decade. The proxies are remote enough for this to be an opportunity to throw a bone to the part of his base that wants less adventurism/imperialism. Trump is still a philosemite and for hostilities with Iran.
mildly_benis
22d ago
I'm so glad you linked that manga, it's a ton of fun.
mildly_benis
1mo ago
There can be multiple losers
And there is a clear winner, too, the US.
Even Ukraine being ruined is a good thing if you take the longer view - sure, there will be tensions and resentment for some years, decades maybe, but these are people with a common language and culture. You can't rule out another reorientation in 10 years, so squint a little, and civilizationally degraded and depopulated Ukraine is weaker future Russia.
mildly_benis
1mo ago
I assumed no liability applies to known and expected side effects, and that for proven vaccines you can cheaply and reliably test for any outright manufacturing trickery since it is possible to just settle on a standard.
The motivation in part is that I think diseases like polio or mumps should be a separate conversation. Clearly those vaccines had gigantic positive effects, and take attention away from questionable products and tactics used to push these products onto the public.
mildly_benis
1mo ago
They are shielded for liability. Arguably the fox is guarding the hen house.
I think there is a distinction to be made here between proven, old vaccines for serious diseases, and everything else. I'm much more comfortable with no liability for the former. I don't know to what extent this distinction is feasible in reality, tho.
mildly_benis
1mo ago
I quite enjoyed this album, thank you for the recommendation.
Can you explain how the green policy helped the US?
Fair question. Germany adding a ton of solar/wind (before it is economically reasonable) shifts their willingness to conflict themselves with Russia and accept some pipes being blown as a nothingburger after all. To the extent the reduced dependence is real, good for Germans. To the extent it is only an impression that will resolve into a crisis, 'unexpected' costs, too bad.
I also think reduced German/European competitiveness is something the US is pursuing. Drains the talent, conflicts European nations with each other, generally makes us easier to manage.
Yes, they added baseload natgas over nuclear, as others pointed out. Not as much as I thought, something between 50-100% increase since 2000, looking at some charts? And fossil fuels suppliers are fungible (at significant cost), some more natgas does not anchor them to Russia permanently, as we've seen. But fair enough, I should have done more hedging myself, was thinking of last few years too much.
mildly_benis
1mo ago
He says it's actually the Russians funding the German Green party, not even hedging or speculating.
Greens were pushing for no fossil fuels, of which Russia is the default European supplier. Greens were pushing for continued war in Ukraine. These are policies that benefit the US.
Surely he knows this. I can't think of it as anything other than a blatantly dishonest narrative in the usual vein of 'Europeans are incompetent, not pulling their own weight, Russians doing with them as they please, they need a savior, that's us (again!)'. Genuinely infuriating. Sobering, too.
mildly_benis
1mo ago
I meant internet in general, especially reddit; it was not my intention to suggest 'transparent pro-Israeli astroturfing' is noticeable themotte, just the genuine supporters.
Terrorism is pretty consistently using violence targetted specifically at civilians in order to enact political change
I meant 'discredited' in the sense of 'terrorist' label being a superweapon abused to the point of ineffectuality. I don't really have an opinion on whether you can formulate a useful definition of terrorism, maybe. Issue is, your formulation I think describes Israeli Gaza operation pretty well, but they are a 'legitimate military force'.
parading kidnapped naked women through the streets
I really wish this sort of labeling would be backed up by videos of something resembling a Roman triumph. But I'm guessing you are referring to the non-naked corpse of a woman on the back of the truck clip? I don't think female Israeli corpses are special, and the amount of attention that is being demanded for them and other Israeli victims (in broad Israeli astroturfing) is disproportional, at times downright deranged.
So the Palestinians get to demand to live in a judenrein society?
I think in a case where this means keeping Jews from coming to them - not even as refugees, but in a settlement campaign under state umbrella - the answer is an unequivocal 'yes, of course'.
mildly_benis
1mo ago
Israel has offered peace multiple times
Settlement expansion, supported by the Israeli state, is essentially enough for me to conclude Israelis were never serious about peace with Palestinians.
Goal always the same - dispossession and/or expulsion. Slowly with settlements, domestic opposition mostly unserious - happy with the end result, only preferring the optics of serious concern and stalwart disapproval. Faster with aerial bombing campaigns.
mildly_benis
1mo ago
From actual Israeli supporters to transparent pro-Israel astroturfing, the insistence on the 'terrorist' angle is striking. Does this really resonate with American normies?
I would think 'terrorism' a discredited label, counterproductive in most cases, especially in the context of distant desert squabbles. Is it not the 'common sense', dominant narrative in the US that the 2000's were a mistake born out of lies and a hysteria? Of course the actual costs to the Americans were miniscule, practically irrelevant, so I don't expect emotional investment, just disinterest and cautious 'this will not work on me twice' attitude.
mildly_benis
2mo ago
I read it last year, there is a good rendition of it on librivox, silly Italian accent is a huge value add. Very enjoyable, though somewhat lenghty.
Barely a year ago Agnieszka Holland, in her movie, was chastizing Poles for their backward preference for a secure border. The elite camp currently in power enthusiastically nodded along, plebs chafed. Somehow I don't buy this change of tune.
In any case, it comes down to our inept attempts at destabilizing Belarus regime. Maybe we're getting enough results to justify the costs of this border issue, I doubt it, I think the window of opportunity is gone.
mildly_benis
2mo ago
Well put. My read is that currently the US is eager for a war around Taiwan, not China, and so significant US escalation is the prerequisite for war. Repeat of Ukraine the ideal scenario, war to the last Taiwanese male and intact piece of infrastructure, no real interest in Taiwanese victory.
Maybe US will make some hard to miss, public move - I'll start worrying then. Maybe it will be a threshold of minor moves only someone closely following the region would notice - I'm doomed to be taken by surprise then.
mildly_benis
2mo ago
Iran is not a serious country
Is this anything more than just a smear?
They are not serious about total war with Israel, for often discussed reasons.
They are serious enough to develop means to strike Israeli ground targets - can't say that about Poland (assuming the requirement is that such capabilities are not dependent on the whims of allies), and we need such weapons just as much as Iranians do.
Canadians don’t have a right to complain because of the residential schools controversy
I hate the idea that the residential schools narrative (and narratives of similar nature) could be so effective. How do you even begin to deprogram such a person?
Maybe just callously adopting your local equivalent of 'Armenian genocide? made up nonsense, and they deserved it all anyway' is the meta. Admittedly I'm biased in that direction.
mildly_benis
3mo ago
A fine of 9000$ is quite something. A sufficiently determined tyrant will force ISPs to report connections to known VPN services. Can an ISP identify VPN endpoints by the nature of the traffic (not easily, I think)? What safer alternatives are there to the simple 'select VPN service, pay, connect'?
mildly_benis
4mo ago
Civ 5 + Vox Populi is the king of the genre imo.
mildly_benis
4mo ago
I can't tell if there's a vibe shift at all, but I imagine the assassination attempt incentivizes toning down the 'threat to our democracy' angle in favor of more positive messaging. 'Threat' narrative is already baked in, can still be pushed on the fringes, but ideally Trump does not get to mention the assassination in a 'high impact' context without seeming somewhat self centered.
mildly_benis
4mo ago
Well said. Hope he does not get banned.
My impression is that this 'panic' is considerably overstated, triumphalism and wishful thinking that translates into deranged twitter takes about Trump charming entire rooms of pliant European elites. Reminds me a little of the "we're the good guys again!" atmosphere among American plebs and elites both after the war in Ukraine began.
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