matt
5mo ago
Kudos to the author for writing a top notch post.
Despite their hefty seat count, Labour's share of the vote amounted to only 34%. To put that into perspective, Corbyn's (one of the independent seats, FYI) 2019 campaign picked up 32% of the vote.
One mitigating factor here is that Labour consciously sacrificed vote share by making policy declarations that would allow them to win in the constituencies they needed to pick up. The Corbyn strategy of loading the manifesto with pledges popular with their base saw them pile up enormous majorities in urban centres whilst leaving swathes of middle England a few % out of reach. Hopefully Starmer's pragmatism will extend to his premiership.
Starmer could be bold on areas related to productivity, housing, pensions, or immigration, but there's just zero sign he'll do so.
I voted Labour and really hope we do see some decisive action. Starmer has clearly been tight lipped on policy details as part of his campaign strategy so it'll be interesting to see how things pan out. House of Lords reform is a near certainty but hopefully we'll see ambition in other areas.
Personally, I'd love to see him crush the NIMBY malaise, bulldoze the greenbelt and get infrastructure and housing being built once again. Significant investment in nuclear power would also be fantastic.
2029 might spell the end for FPTP in a hung parliament situation.
The game theory is quite fun here I think. The Labour and Tory parties are committed to FPTP in part because changing to a PR system would inevitably result in schisms within their own parties. Unity is only maintained by the knowledge that breaking away leads to near certain electoral death.
Northern Ireland remains a basket case
I hope one day the somewhat sensible Alliance party can grow into being a serious party of regional government.
matt
6mo ago
Appreciate I’m a solitary datapoint but my vasectomy has been fine. Healed up nice and quickly and no discomfort or visible scar.
Condoms aren’t much fun, so very liberating not having to worry about them anymore.
matt
6mo ago
A couple of factors off the top of my head:
- the national mood tends to peak in the spring / summer so a good time for the incumbent to call an election
- inflation data came out just before the announcement which allows the government to declare victory on bringing it under control
matt
6mo ago
One of the biggest factors is clearly going to be the type of business you want to start. Setting up a McDonald’s franchise is going to require a significant amount of work and dedication but is likely to have a reasonably high chance of making you rich.
A traditional VC backed software startup might have higher potential upside but its sharpe ratio is pretty likely to be considerably lower.
matt
8mo ago
The term you’re looking for is circular dependency. That should hopefully help you on your Google quest.
matt
11mo ago
I suppose it depends on what you are looking for. London, as visualised by this rather excellent FT graphic is somewhere that is stereotypically inhabited by those in their twenties to early thirties. When it comes to having children, many professional couples chose to move to one of innumerable picturesque towns or villages that encircle the capital.
matt
1yr ago
Sunak strikes me as a broadly competent PM who’s main problem is dealing with the assorted political baggage that comes from leading a party that has been in power for 13 years. I think there are some interesting parallels between his tenure and that of post-Thatcher PM John Major who went into a general election with a rather buoyant economy, but got totally smashed by Blair. I don’t personally see any Labour victory being anywhere that decisive, the most likely outcome is that Keir wins a single term on a modest majority.
I think you’re correct that SNP struggles could well tip the balance at the upcoming election. Without a realistic prospect of independence, which is the sole unifying policy in the SNP ranks, there’s a risk of damage from further infighting. The SNP do of course have the advantage (similar to the basket case NI parties) that they’re unequivocally the only choice if you want to vote in the self interest of your tribe.
matt
1yr ago
Fun post! Western schooling seems to be a total mess of conflicts of interest and horrid compromises.
I think it’s possible to extend the “Georgios problem” beyond the exceptional to many other students. I’m fortunate enough to have a bright wife who I believe was drastically underserved by the UK comprehensive education system. Despite being placed in the top set for all of her classes, she found herself bored and unchallenged due to the need to follow the national curriculum and progress at the speed of her least capable classmate.
I’m not sure I fully believe the full extent of Bloom’s claims about the superlative impact of individual tuition but it’s a pretty tantalising thought on how we could better serve our brightest students. As a friend pointed out, the intensive tuition of Von Neumann and Einstein received in childhood might be a bigger contributor to their success than their Ashkenazi heritage.
matt
1yr ago
Highly recommend.
We got a cleaner after having children and can’t look back now. It’s materially increased the amount of free time my wife and I have to spend together while eliminating a range of unpleasant tasks.
Furthermore, we’ve built up a lovely relationship with our cleaners. Our toddler is always excited to see them come through the door and conversations can occasionally provide a fascinating insight into normie-land.
matt
1yr ago
so it's only a matter of skill and practice to get to a tolerable place
You've already identified exactly what you need to do. Just consistently put yourself out there into social situations.
There's some good advice elsewhere in this thread. One thing not mentioned yet is to consider your appearance - first impressions really matter. If you haven't already, I'd suggest you load your wardrobe up with Uniqlo and get a haircut. You don't need to aim for stylish, but looking presentable should boost your confidence considerably.
matt
1yr ago
I've not read the book mentioned by OP, but I have read Eisenhower: In War and Peace which I thoroughly enjoyed. As the title suggests, it covers both his military and political service. I finished the tome with a pretty positive impression of Ike.
he thought the President was supposed to be a national leader above the fray of partisan politics.
I like this take. Admittedly it seems that he had his hands full worrying about foreign policy to spend too much time on domestic matters. However, the model of a President who is comfortable delegating major responsibilities to his cabinet intuitively feels like a sensible one to me.
When it came to likely his most important role of grooming a successor, he dropped the ball in amazing fashion; when asked by a reporter to name a major decision made by Nixon during their two terms Eisenhower responded “if you give me a week I might think of one.”
My understanding was that Eisenhower didn't have much choice w.r.t Nixon. He was lumbered with the guy by the Republican establishment whose support he needed to win the nomination. I suppose his lack of engagement in partisan politics would have also have made anointing a successor more challenging.
Eisenhower mostly managed to steer clear of direct conflict himself.
I think he deserves enormous credit for this. There's film footage of him trying to talk to as many servicemen as possible prior to the D-Day invasion - aware that scores would be killed 24 hours later. I suspect the responsibility of avoiding a repeat of the foreign policy failures of the 1930s would have weighed heavily on him.
matt
2yr ago
I see programming as ultimately a means to an end.
With the above in mind, you’re likely to find it easier to stay motivated if you’re working on a project in a domain that you’re personally invested. Instead of worrying about a curriculum, I’d suggest learning only what you need to get your project working - you can always fill in any knowledge gaps later.
However, if you want to do some fiddling about with brain teasers I’d suggest tackling the upcoming Advent of Code..
matt
2yr ago
I know very little about electrical transmission, but my understanding is that it isn’t likely to be a huge problem. There appears to be a number of existing subsea interconnectors that transmit large amounts of power over long distances.
Heating of the local area is a really interesting point that I’m not sure of the implications!
matt
2yr ago
I’ve recently become quite enamoured with the idea of offshore nuclear power, as laid out in this presentation.
The benefits seem quite numerous:
-
the possibility of mass producing standardised power stations at significantly reduced cost
-
export business model
-
reducing the risks posed by tsunamis and earthquakes
-
sidestepping the NIMBY problems that normally emerge with these kind of projects
Anyone here able to point out why this is likely to be a terribly stupid idea in practice?
matt
2yr ago
I’ve got a couple of suggestions to throw into the mix.
Clapton’s signature song. Killer intro and compelling throughput. The story and context behind the song is also interesting.
The Boys Are Back In Town - Thin Lizzy
I love the false menace, Phil Lynott is trying to sound tough but clearly is also having great fun. A great singalong anthem that would equally be at home at a metal concert or at a boozy family party.
It probably is Free Bird though..
matt
2yr ago
I’m sympathetic to this view, but I’d just try not to worry about it too much. My take is that studios have far more irritating practices than diversity quotas.
I watched Unforgiven (1992) yesterday. Morgan Freeman showing up doesn’t make much historical sense there either. However, perhaps these kind of casting choices have been going on longer than it feels like and isn’t actually that new of a liberal movement.
matt
2yr ago
Congratulations! Wishing your family health and prosperity.
I’m in my early 30s and have a toddler. All the usual cliches apply about the experience thus far, and it’s certainly altered some of my political views.
Many of my friends, almost all who are liberal urbanites, have no plans to have children. I suspect a number of them might regret this later in life.
The cited article should clearly not be believed. It's cherry picking statistics and painting an unrepresentative picture of the realities of crime in London.
There are many legitimate problems with the Metropolitan Police. In recent years they've suffered from poor leadership and a number of incidents that have undermined public trust. Furthermore, many middle class residents have real frustration with a lack of progress combatting crimes such as bike thefts and burglaries.
My understanding is that political decisions have been made to focus policing on more severe crimes - especially counter terrorism operations and sexual offences. Despite this lack of focus from the Met, the article isn't representative of the IRL vibe I've experienced - my partner continues to feel safe walking around our relatively deprived borough alone at night.
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